NFL Week 7 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

If you know of anyone else who gave the Steelers a chance to beat the Buccaneers last week, I'd be happy to hear about it. But since we're going for the gusto with this 11-part bet, we needed more than just the Steelers and Patriots to come through.

The Dolphins had an outrageous 224 yards more than the Vikings, the Panthers actually led at halftime, and the Broncos had every opportunity to beat the Chargers on Monday night. Another 3-2 week against the spread makes our underdogs 21-7-2 ATS and 13-16-1 on the moneyline. Singular bets are quite profitable this season, but we're here for the big score.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs we like against the spread together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did for us in Week 1 last season, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Lions +260

The Lions are back where we like to bet them - they're scrappy underdogs getting a significant amount of points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys return to the position where fading them is optimal: as significant favorites.

Dak Prescott's return has bumped the line to -7 (it wouldn't have been much higher than -3.5 with Cooper Rush) and the moneyline naturally climbed with it. If Prescott is in midseason form, maybe that's a fair price, but I'm willing to bet against his grip being 100%. If that results in one extra turnover, that might give the Lions a chance to win.

Coming out of the Lions' bye week, Amon-Ra St. Brown and a handful of offensive linemen were removed from the injury report. They'll be hoping D'Andre Swift is next, which would make their offense as explosive as it has been all season.

Commanders +190

Usually, the scary thing about betting on the Commanders is putting your money in the hands of Carson Wentz. However, one of those hands is broken. That means Taylor Heinicke is back, and his familiarity with Washington's offense, which features more weapons than he ever had last season, means the Commanders might not suffer at all by going to the backup.

Meanwhile, the strength of Washington's defense is its front, which should be able to torment a Packers offensive line that has struggled for weeks. A predictable Green Bay attack shouldn't scare those willing to fire with the Commanders.

49ers +125

The line has already come off the opener of KC -3 in the direction of San Francisco, mirroring my projected line of under a field goal. This may indicate that the 49ers are expected to get a more encouraging injury report. If Trent Williams and Nick Bosa can return, we'll see a version of the Niners that looked like it might compete with the Chiefs to be the league's second-best team.

The Bills exposed the poor quality of Kansas City's secondary depth, and if the defensive line can't handle what San Francisco does on the ground, the Chiefs will be on their heels when Jimmy Garoppolo drops back to pass. The 49ers will move the ball even better than Buffalo did and win this game outright.

Texans +260

Hopefully, the Texans spent their bye week basking in their win in Jacksonville, watching it over and over. That would help them realize that Dameon Pierce is awesome and expanding his workload offers some relief for Davis Mills, who should have success against a defense allowing the second-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Since we're asking Houston to win, the Raiders need to be complicit, and that doesn't seem like it'll be an issue. All four of their losses have been close - a dramatic change from last season when they won those tight games. That often comes down to coaching. Since we definitely don't trust Las Vegas to win by margin, a big moneyline price makes Houston worth a shot.

Seahawks +200

Does anything about the Chargers suggest they're capable of winning by margin? Kenneth Walker III and the Seahawks will march the ball up and down the field, but so will Los Angeles, with neither team able to pull away. As happened Monday in SoFi Stadium, the winner will probably be determined by a lucky bounce on a turnover or special teams, but if we're getting 2-1 odds on one side, we'll happily flip that coin.

Here's how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.