NFL Week 7 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser

Trusting the Packers in a teaser again was like milk on a hot day - a bad choice. They're on the "do not bet" list for the foreseeable future, but the other significant loss from last week (Saints +2) is a "would bet again" situation. A 9-point lead in the fourth quarter seemed safe, since the Bengals would have happily kicked a field goal late for a 1-point win. Ja'Marr Chase had other ideas, as the Cincinnati receiver broke free from lackluster tackle attempts to score a spread-covering touchdown.

All told, it was nice to get back in the black after a pair of weird weeks where bad beats dug a small hole - particularly in our bread-and-butter spread bets. As usual, the upset special led the way with the Giants' win over the Ravens.

Best bets ATS

Lions +7

Of all the vulnerable touchdown favorites this week, the Cowboys are most likely to win without covering. My fair price for this game is -5, so the excitement over Dak Prescott's return needs to be tempered.

Last season, Prescott returned from injury against the Broncos and completed under 50% of his passes in a blowout loss. How much of an improvement will he be with a Cowboys attack that is 16th in offensive DVOA (according to Football Outsiders)?

Dallas has relied on stellar defense, but it's also been able to take advantage of the Bengals', Commanders', and Rams' troubled offensive lines. The Lions' offensive line can hold up, and the Cowboys won't scheme trouble for Jared Goff the way that Bill Belichick did. Even if the Lions face an early deficit, they'll find their way through the back door late.

Broncos PK

If Russell Wilson doesn't play, we may even be getting points with the Broncos at home against the Jets. However impressed you are by the Jets' three-game win streak (Steelers, Dolphins, and Packers), the market might be more so, dropping this game down to pick'em. However, Zach Wilson and his 56% completion rate haven't seen the type of defense that can keep Justin Herbert out of the end zone.

We've seen enough of the Broncos' Wilson this season to know that he's currently replacement level at best. Brett Rypien hasn't had a chance to play since a 2020 win in the only start of his career, as a rookie, against the Jets. Whether it's Rypien or Wilson, the Broncos aren't bad enough to be a pick'em at home to the Jets.

Bengals -6.5

The Falcons have avoided regression in their ATS record thanks to a coin-flip win over Cleveland, a backdoor cover in Tampa, and a wounded 49ers defense last week. So they get the headline as "undefeated against the spread."

That reputation is why this line opened under a touchdown, but it's been bet up toward where it should be at -7. We're still getting a half-point off a key number with the Bengals, who have improved their run game (albeit in a small sample) and can take advantage of Atlanta's lack of QB pressure (last in sack percentage). Another big game is in store for Joe Burrow.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Seahawks +200

We're doubling down on this play from the round-robin underdog moneyline parlay. The Seahawks have now shown they can win a low-scoring game, having held the Cardinals to 4.4 yards per play, and their ability to create turnovers (tied for fifth in the NFL) creates optimism about the defense. The Chargers' offense is no more explosive than Seattle's and their 4-2 record feels better than the season they've had. With minimal home-field advantage, Los Angeles is ripe to lose a shootout.

Best total bet

Buccaneers / Panthers under 40 points

P.J. Walker gets another start, and that's a mistake. Walker couldn't complete a downfield pass against the Rams last week, and now that he doesn't have Christian McCaffrey, what are the Panthers expected to do against Tampa's defense?

The possibility of Carolina getting shut out would normally lead us to lay the big number on the Buccaneers, but their offense is still missing something after putting up just 4.5 yards per play in Pittsburgh. Even if Tampa Bay manages an unlikely 30-point explosion on the road against a decent defense, this game still might stay under the number given how few points the Panthers should score.

Best 6-point teaser

Colts +8.5 / Patriots -2

The Colts closed upward of 5-point favorites in Week 3 at home against the Titans. While that line was probably inflated, and Tennessee hung onto an early lead for the win, a 7.5-point swing is unwarranted. This was legitimized when bettors pulled the line down off Titans -3. Now at 2.5 points, the best play is to tease this up to 8.5 and hope for two equal teams to play like it.

That result would set up a closeout Monday night with a Patriots team that has been wildly underrated in the marketplace for weeks but, for murky reasons, hasn't attracted attention for it. While an adjustment might have come with this line north of a touchdown, there's little chance the Pats won't beat the Bears.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.