Hart Trophy Rankings: McDavid's exploits make it a battle for 2nd place

There's no point beating around the bush here. Connor McDavid is the obvious MVP front-runner as we move further into the unofficial second half of this NHL season. That's hardly a controversial statement, but let's be real: Everyone else garnering Hart Trophy consideration is clearly just vying to be a finalist at this point.

The four players below him on this list have all been extremely valuable to their clubs and would all have a legitimate shot to win if McDavid wasn't playing like a human video game.

Two other stars would be in the mix if the list was a little longer, too. Jason Robertson remains a fringe candidate, but he's been outplayed lately by a new contender, and Tage Thompson's evolution into a game-changer has been the biggest reason the Buffalo Sabres are within striking distance of a playoff spot.

Here are our top five Hart Trophy contenders at this point in the campaign:

5. Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk has provided the Florida Panthers with significant value in his first season with them. We've been reluctant to include him on these lists until now because the Cats have been so disappointing. But the versatile forward's elite play deserves recognition precisely because he's carried an underachieving club, and he's been on fire lately.

The All-Star MVP racked up seven goals and 17 assists in the 15 games since our last edition of these rankings. Tkachuk leads the NHL in both helpers and points in that span. The talented agitator's production relative to that of his teammates has been commendable, too. Tkachuk has 10 more assists and 24 more points than the closest Panthers, all while sitting among the league leaders in both categories.

The 25-year-old's underlying numbers have been sublime. He ranks third in the NHL in wins above replacement and is tied for third in goals above replacement. He also sits third in individual expected goals. Tkachuk is 10th in five-on-five expected goals for percentage among forwards with at least 500 minutes played in those situations, having logged more ice time than all but one forward ahead of him. As a result, the gritty American has an outside shot at being voted a Hart finalist.

4. Mikko Rantanen

The injury-riddled Colorado Avalanche are getting healthier, so they're no longer relying as heavily on Rantanen. Still, the Finnish forward continues to provide the defending champions with tremendous value.

Rantanen leads all NHL forwards - yes, even McDavid - in average ice time and ranks second in the league in even-strength goals. He's racked up eight tallies and five assists in the 13 games since our last edition. His xGF% is the least flattering of anyone in this top five, but he's helping Colorado control a greater share (55.23%) of the scoring chances when he's been on the ice at five-on-five.

The Avalanche star is outscoring his closest teammate by 19 goals while outproducing the second-best Avalanche skater by six points. Injuries have factored into that, but those disparities continue to illustrate how critical Rantanen has been in keeping his injury-ravaged team afloat.

3. Jack Hughes

Hughes is now considered week-to-week due to injury, but New Jersey Devils head coach Lindy Ruff expects his absence to be on the shorter end. In addition, Hughes deserves to be recognized for how critical he's been to his team's success so far. The club's catalyst leads the league in both WAR and GAR, sits atop the NHL in even-strength goals, and ranks second in even-strength points - all astounding trends for a player who's turning 22 in May.

His terrific underlying figures don't end with his WAR and GAR, either. Among forwards with at least 500 minutes logged at five-on-five, Hughes' xGF% ranks 12th, and his SCF% (59.7) slots in at 10th.

Hughes has collected 14 more goals and 15 more points than his closest teammates, and he registered 11 goals and 10 assists in the 11 games since our previous edition. The American sits third in shots on goal among all NHL skaters, and he ranks among the league's best in the Maurice "Rocket" Richard and Art Ross Trophy races. Hughes has been exceedingly valuable, and he'd be the clear Hart runner-up at this point if not for the injury that could keep him out for a handful of games or more.

2. David Pastrnak

Pastrnak has been in MVP contention all season long - not just because of how good he's been, but because of how much better he's played than his Boston Bruins teammates. That's a remarkable feat considering those teammates are Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and Charlie McAvoy, along with Linus Ullmark, the clear Vezina Trophy favorite.

Pastrnak racked up 11 goals and nine assists in the 13 games since we last evaluated this race, with a whopping 20 more goals and 26 more points than any other Bruins skater. He was stellar when Marchand and McAvoy missed time due to injuries at the start of the campaign, and he hasn't slowed down since.

The Czech playmaker sits second in the NHL in goals and fourth in points. At even strength, Pastrnak is joint fourth in goals and joint eighth in points. He also leads the league in shots on goal. Ullmark's sterling campaign and the Bruins' status as the NHL's best team have hurt Pastrnak's Hart bid to a degree, but his consistently potent play - especially relative to his team - makes him a serious contender.

1. Connor McDavid

Everyone knows there's more to hockey than goals, assists, and points. But when a player like McDavid has an 18-point lead while pacing the league in tallies and ranking joint second in helpers, it's important not to overthink when it comes to MVP voting.

It's not just his conventional stats that warrant recognition, either. Only two players have more WAR than McDavid this season, and only four have more GAR. His SCF% (56.13) is nearly identical to his xGF%, and he sits fifth in the NHL in individual expected goals.

Other contenders have excelled with less support than the Edmonton Oilers captain has had (having Leon Draisaitl helps), but no one's done more, and that can't be ignored. McDavid has simply been too dominant to place him anywhere but in the top spot.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)