NFL Week 15 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser

You could feel it the second the punt got blocked.

The Bills had allowed just one scoring drive to the Jets through three quarters and had a 20-7 lead. Ideally, Buffalo would have scored more, but expectations were limited in a bad-weather game against a good defense. Then the Jets blocked a Bills punt for a safety, and the calculations ensued. Astute bettors knew that an 11-point margin meant there was a decent chance New York would settle for a field goal to cut the lead to eight points, and a 3-0 week against the spread washed away in the rain. Still, we'll take a couple more units into the black overall.

Best bets ATS

Bills -7

Mike McDaniel can wear all the T-shirts he wants, but the Dolphins aren't built for Buffalo's weather on Saturday night. Last Sunday, the Chargers clogged the middle of the field on Tua Tagovailoa, forcing him to throw outside. That didn't work indoors in L.A., so we shouldn't expect it to go well in a blizzard. The Bills' offense saw grim conditions last week and should have full focus to avenge Week 3, when they somehow lost in Miami despite out-gaining the Dolphins 497-212. Josh Allen makes the throws that Tagovailoa can't, and the Bills' defense forces turnovers in a comfortable win.

Jets -2

Cue the "You're a mean one, Mr. Grinch" music, but this is a tough spot for everyone's second-favorite team, the Lions. Their offense gets its toughest test when combining conditions and opponent this season. Jared Goff has historically struggled in the cold, so the team's efficiency was headed for a drop before even factoring in a Jets defense that's tied for first in yards per play allowed.

With Mike White under center, the Jets' offense has looked friskier than Season 2 of "White Lotus," but it helped facing the Bears' and Vikings' defense. After a tough matchup at Buffalo, the Lions' defense is much closer to the lower echelon of Chicago and Minnesota. The "Mean Green" get the win and their playoff chances grow three sizes.

Titans +3

Are you familiar with the collective works of the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers? Historically, the NFL's most star-crossed franchise is roughly 0-for-infinity when it comes to following big wins with another victory.

It's easy to get excited about the Chargers with a cavalry of injured starters reportedly on the way back, especially after a dominant performance by the pass defense last week on Sunday Night Football. This is a different game, though. L.A.'s awful run defense will be tested repeatedly by Derrick Henry, and I expect it to fail. Mike Vrabel outfoxes Brandon Staley, sending the Chargers back on the bubble, but in the event Justin Herbert saves the day, we'll take a field goal's worth of points.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Buccaneers +165

An easy way to define value is via comparison to past point spreads, regardless of one game's result. Here are the recent lines of Buccaneers games:

• +3.5 at San Francisco
• -3.5 vs. New Orleans
• -3.5 at Cleveland
• -3.5 vs. Seattle (in Germany)
• -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams

We haven't seen the Bucs as home underdogs since Week 12 of 2020, but more importantly, this line implies that Tampa has as much of a chance of winning at home against the Bengals as it does on the road against the 49ers.

It implies that Cincinnati is seven points better than the Seahawks plus a point or two for home-field advantage. It implies that the Bengals are 10 points better than the Browns, even though those two teams met last week in Cincinnati and the line closed with the Bengals favored by 4.5 points at home. This is the peak of the market for Cincinnati, and the low point for Tampa Bay - a perfect case of buying low and selling high.

Best total bet

Steelers / Panthers Under 37.5 points

The Panthers are a last-minute cut from the ATS trio, but the line has extended out to a full field goal. The premise of that handicap is a skepticism about how the Steelers will score against Carolina's defense, which has found its groove while getting back to health. It looks like either Mitch Trubisky or even Mason Rudolph will start at quarterback, so a conservative game plan is highly probable for Pittsburgh.

The Steelers' defense couldn't get the Ravens off the field even though there was minimal threat of Anthony Brown throwing down the field, so the Panthers should be able to run the ball throughout. That churns up the clock and keeps this game to a "first-team-to-20-wins" style of contest.

Best 6-point teaser

Bills -1 / Packers -1

Two weeks ago, we told ourselves not to be over-leveraged on one game, but that's how confident I am in the Bills beating the Dolphins on Saturday night. Meanwhile, I'm expecting something that looks more like the rest of the Rams' season on offense, as opposed to what we saw in the final three minutes of last Thursday's game against the Raiders. Baker Mayfield is in for a rude awakening at Lambeau Field with a rested Aaron Rodgers on the other side.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.