Schultz: 5 things many didn't see coming before the season

Watching the NFL may be a weekly rite of passage for millions of fans, but predicting what will actually take place every Sunday is no easy task. Perhaps no player and team have been more disappointing than Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. On the flip side, how about Wilson's replacement with the Seattle Seahawks, Geno Smith, who leads the league in several categories - including a sterling 71.4% completion percentage - and was just named to his first Pro Bowl.

Here are the five worst predictions the national media and fans got wrong heading into the 2022 season.

Geno Smith as a starter

Smith hasn't just been good for the Seahawks; he's been great. He's the only signal-caller with a quarterback rating of 100 or more in nine games this season, and he's also fourth in passing touchdowns behind Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. Smith has put up career highs across the board - in large part because of his preparation, not to mention synergy with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.

When I spent an afternoon with Smith and DK Metcalf earlier this season in Seattle, it was fascinating to learn about Smith's ability to check at the line of scrimmage and his trust in Waldron.

Smith specifically described one play to me in great detail during Seattle's Week 4 shootout win in Detroit. Late in the third quarter, on third-and-16, Smith audibled to a Rashaad Penny run that busted out for a 36-yard, game-altering TD. The original play was a throw Smith liked, but he loved the look Penny had for a run. The play worked to perfection, and the surging Seahawks' season was officially off and running.

Josh McDaniels in Vegas

The McDaniels experiment has been a disaster. Talent isn't the problem in the desert, either; McDaniels is. Consider this: The 6-8 Raiders are one of only three teams (along with the Cowboys and Eagles) that has both a Pro Bowl wide receiver and running back. Davante Adams (fourth in receiving) has been as advertised, while Josh Jacobs (first in rushing) is about to get paid. (Injuries to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow have certainly hampered this offense's upside.)

McDaniels, though, was hired for his offensive chops; he was supposed to be the one who could finally unlock all of quarterback Derek Carr's talent. However, the talented yet oft-maligned quarterback has recorded the second-lowest passer rating (89.2) and completion percentage (61.2) of his career. (To be fair, his QBR of 58.4 is the third-highest.) Perhaps the biggest issue has been red-zone offense, where McDaniels' ultra-conservative nature has thwarted opportunities.

Vegas has settled for 16 red-zone field goals (fifth-most) and gone for it on fourth down in the red zone only twice (T-25th). What's worse: The Raiders - despite premium skill-position talent - are a shockingly low 29th in red-zone touchdown rate. We told you that McDaniels' job was probably safe for now, but just how patient will owner Mark Davis be?

But, hey, at least the fans haven't lost their unbridled enthusiasm:

They scoffed at Goff

Don't look now, but Jared Goff and the Lions are playoff contenders and could make their first postseason appearance since 2016. They rank fourth in total offense (375.1 yards per game) and sixth in scoring (26.4 points per game). At Goff's disposal in the passing game are a bona fide No. 1 receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown and a freak talent in rookie Jameson Williams. Did we mention their two-headed monster at running back in Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift?

But Goff has easily been the biggest surprise, specifically his play in the clutch. The Lions - winners of seven of their last eight games after starting 1-6 - rank third in red-zone touchdown percentage, with Goff's good decision-making and accurate deliveries changing the Lions' propensities in close games.

"You can tell the guys like and respect Goff," a scout told me. "Watch how excited everyone - especially his linemen - get after he makes a big throw. I think they're going to try and build with him, too. This was the No. 1 pick in the draft; he's not some underdog. He can play. And I think Brad (Holmes, the Lions GM) believes he can win with him."

The Rams were a contender

It's been a rough season for the Rams' Super Bowl repeat hopes. They rank second-last in rushing the ball based on PFF's team grades (Tampa Bay is worse) and only 26th in passing. That's compared to fifth in passing and a passable 25th in rushing in 2021. I can't think of a worse performance by a Sean McVay-coached offense than the Rams' November loss to the Bucs.

In that game, L.A. somehow managed the same amount of punts as it did first downs (nine) and went three-and-out on eight of 12 possessions. Go back and watch the tape, if you're so inclined, because it's a microcosm of the season: Bad penalties, a lack of creativity, and errant throws.

To be sure, injuries have played a major factor: Matthew Stafford's elbow wasn't healthy going into the season, and losing All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp was devastating. But you don't lose six straight games without real problems. Better yet, with a severely bloated payroll, you have to wonder what the future holds. "I wouldn't be surprised if Sean walked away, at least for a year," an NFL executive told me. "He almost did it once. … I think he's really tired. It wouldn't shock me at all if he left."

Broncos stuck in the gate

The Wilson-Nathaniel Hackett partnership started horribly in Week 1 in Seattle and has only worsened. It's hard to believe, but Wilson - a nine-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl champion - has just 11 touchdown passes this season. For a guy who, up until last year, had never missed a single game and never had a losing record, it's an astoundingly low number. (He's never thrown fewer than 20 TDs in a season.)

At 4-10, the Broncos aren't just bad but downright awful. While Hackett surely lost this locker room months ago, I'm not sure Wilson ever had it.

You can go through Wilson's stats, and they are all career lows: Lowest completion percentage, lowest yards per attempt, and lowest QBR. I guess the bigger question is, where do they go from here? Hackett's gone after the season, but what do the Broncos do with Wilson? He signed the second-largest contract ever: Five years, $245 million, with $165 million guaranteed. Could the Walton family feasibly rip up what looks to be the worst contract in NFL history? Could they eat all that money right after acquiring the team and start over again?

Jordan Schultz is theScore's NFL insider and senior NBA reporter. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.