NFL Week 16 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

A 17-point lead in the NFL is sometimes a more important accomplishment for those betting the moneyline than it seems. Week 15's selections were good enough to go 4-1 against the spread (season: 45-27-3) and should have cashed four of the ten connected moneyline parlays.

Unfortunately, you may have been gasping for air after the Colts started the weekend with a historic collapse. A 33-0 halftime lead wasn't good enough for Jeff Saturday and Matt Ryan to beat the Vikings outright. Then, to make matters worse, the Buccaneers blew a 17-0 lead and didn't even cover, keeping our outright underdogs at 2-3 and just out of cashing range.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs we like ATS in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Saints +130

Let's start with the purest form of the moneyline bet - the "weighted coin game." The 50-mph winds in the forecast for Cleveland on Saturday levels the playing field. Luck and variance become a bigger factor, with the potential for any touchdown to be followed by a two-point conversion rather than a wind-affected kick.

The Saints can turn to Taysom Hill in case of an emergency, so if this game becomes a ground-heavy attack for both sides, he and Alvin Kamara can be just as effective as the Browns' rushers - who've had a lower per-carry success rate than you'd think. In a true toss-up, we'll take the side at a plus-money price.

Patriots +140

You're welcome to be bitter about the Patriots' loss. Keelan Cole's toes were out of bounds, and Jakobi Meyers made one of the dumbest plays in sports history.

You're also within your rights to be bitter if you faded the Bengals last week. Cincinnati won and covered with just 237 total yards - 3.8 yards per play. That's virtually unheard of. Defensive end Sam Hubbard now joins Trey Hendrickson on the sideline, a week after the Bengals gave up 5.7 yards per play to a Bucs team averaging 5 yards per play on the season.

The biggest issue for New England has been the untimely sacks taken by Mac Jones, but with the Bengals missing players accounting for 12.5 of their 22 sacks and the Patriots coming off a 200-yard rushing game in Las Vegas, that shouldn't be an issue this week.

Commanders +275

Much was made of Brock Purdy's 11-for-11 start in Seattle last Thursday, but next to nothing was made of his 6-for-15 finish. The opening script worked well for the rookie quarterback on the road, but it helped that the Seahawks were incapable of consistently stopping Christian McCaffrey. The Commanders' defensive line - which may have cameo appearances from Chase Young in passing situations - is going to provide a bigger challenge from the outset.

Washington outgained the Giants by more than two yards per play Sunday night, so it was unlucky to lose that game beyond the questionable officiating late on. With the NFC West clinched, the 49ers are nestled in the 2-3 pocket of the playoff picture, while the Commanders' backs are firmly against the wall.

Eagles +185*

Note the price before you play the Eagles. I don't buy the rumblings that Jalen Hurts plays in this game, which caused the line to creep back down and the moneyline price to shorten. He'll eventually be ruled out, but I don't buy that Philadelphia won't be competitive in this game either.

All the Eagles' front office has done in its tenure is immediately plug holes in the roster and provide depth in case of injury. That they've had Gardner Minshew behind Hurts for two years and haven't felt the need to upgrade tells me they're comfortable with him in the short term. This moneyline should find its way back over +200, and the line should get back to +6 or higher. That'll trigger a bet against the Cowboys, who've looked far from solid in recent weeks.

Packers +170

We've lost some value on the spread, and it doesn't appear +6 is coming back, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are very live for an upset with two home games left to run the table. Green Bay owns a top-five offense in Football Outsiders' DVOA since Week 10, and the Dolphins' defense has allowed the sixth-worst opponent passer rating going against anyone from Brock Purdy to Justin Herbert to Josh Allen.

It's worth wondering out loud: What's Miami's best win this season? Early-season victories over the Ravens and Bills came with unsustainable statistics - 8.6 yards per play for Baltimore and net 200 yards from Buffalo. The Packers are in for a shootout.

Here's how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.