NFL Week 16 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser

We didn't get the snow we wanted in Buffalo until the bitter end. The Jets didn't give up an offensive touchdown until the final minutes but lost anyway. Despite just eight full possessions in Carolina, the Steelers and Panthers' total went over via the backdoor. The Buccaneers blew a 17-0 lead. It was a banner week for feeling like you nailed the handicap only to have to rip up the ticket when the clock struck zeros.

Best bets ATS

Bears +8.5

We didn't include the Bears in the round-robin moneyline parlay - our look at our five favorite underdogs of the week - because any victories down the stretch would be a disaster organizationally. Chicago has the inside track for the second overall draft pick, but the players on the field don't care about that.

The Bills needed shoestring tackles to barely save potentially long runs from Raheem Mostert last week and have an injury report that shows a banged-up defensive line. Buffalo's given up 5.3 yards per carry in its previous three games, and all Chicago wants to do is run the football with Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Khalil Herbert, who's likely to return.

Josh Allen and the Bills may not have been the better team at home against the Dolphins. And despite consistently winning games, bettors are often left underwhelmed with the expectation of dominance, as Buffalo's had a hard time pulling away from inferior competition. Like many of its other games as significant home underdogs, Chicago keeps it close without winning, taking advantage of run-centric conditions in the Windy City.

Titans -3 (-120)

The Titans' roster is a mess. Ryan Tannehill is out. There are injury concerns across the offensive line. Key members of the defense might be out this week. And Tennessee is one loss away from losing the AFC South's top spot. All signs point to a peak situation where Mike Vrabel rallies the remaining troops to play a clean game.

The Texans have shown some spirit lately. But, if you weren't locked-in on their game last week, you might not know they were out-gained in yards 502-219 despite going to overtime with the Chiefs. Now they go on the road to take on the Titans, who've been over-adjusted downward in market ratings with Malik Willis even though he's covered in both starts. It's worth the extra 10 cents to get the key number of -3.

Steelers -2.5

Historically, the bigger the prime-time game, the more confidence you should have in the Steelers. Add in Franco Harris' death on the same week the 'Immaculate Reception' was to be celebrated, and we're getting the full attention of Mike Tomlin's group. And it comes a week after Pittsburgh kept its season alive on the road.

If the Raiders aren't blowing big leads, they're getting away with ridiculous victories. In last week's case, they got both. The Steelers are 5-2 when T.J. Watt plays, and Derek Carr's turnover rate goes up on the road. With Kenny Pickett back, there shouldn't be the soul-crushing interceptions that put Pittsburgh in peril against the Ravens. The Steelers are a good bet under a field goal on Christmas Eve.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Eagles +180

The market readjusted back down after an initial push to +200 on the moneyline, but the Eagles are still the look at this price. Gardner Minshew has a 41-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in a career primarily spent in Jacksonville. This is the best offensive talent he's had to work with.

Minshew is better than Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, and the Texans' quarterback combo - a group who kept far inferior teams in games against the Cowboys. We'll never get another chance to back this good of a team at this underdog price.

Best total bet

Bengals / Patriots over 41.5 points

Like most outdoor games this week, this total has been depressed on the expectation the teams will struggle to throw. But Joe Burrow's got enough weapons. It's also generally gone poorly for the Patriots' defense anytime they've played even league-average quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Bengals will have a hard time getting to Mac Jones, and New England may succeed more than usual in converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. Both teams get to 20 points despite the conditions.

Best 6-point teaser

Saints +9 / Buccaneers -1.5

We've tried to keep this section simple as we've battled back over .500 in our best teaser of the week. With gale-force winds in the forecast, shaky quarterbacks, and good tailbacks, let's just take nine points in a low-total game between the Saints and Browns.

If that isn't logical enough, we'll hope that Tom Brady and the Buccaneers at -1.5 against Trace McSorley and arguably the worst team in the league in Arizona is truly a Christmas gift.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.