CBB betting: How to bet the Mountain West Tournament

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

The Mountain West Conference managed to get four teams into the NCAA Tournament last March, its most since 2013. Then, each one lost its first game. Will the memory of that permeate through the selection committee this season? With no standout team in the conference, there's only one way to avoid the committee's judgment: win and earn an automatic NCAA bid.

Tournament odds

Early-round bet to make

(11) Wyoming vs. (6) New Mexico
March 8, 7:00 p.m. EST

It's been a horror show for Wyoming this season after making the NCAA Tournament field last year, as player dismissals and injuries have hampered what was thought to be a decent collection of talent. However, "post point guard" Hunter Maldonado remains the glue for a team that's managed a pair of wins down the stretch and has scored well in adjusted defensive ShotQuality metrics. In fact, shotquality.com suggests that Wyoming's 8-21 record could be as good as 16-13 based on the team's shot selection.

One of the Cowboys' wins down the stretch came at New Mexico, a team that's shot a league-best 39% from beyond the 3-point line but only made 31% of its threes in that game in Albuquerque. Getting a handful of points, we just need this to stay close. That's possible if Wyoming can again limit the Lobos' deep shooting by forcing tough shots and containing Jamal Mashburn Jr. for a second time.

Pick: Wyoming (+7 or better)

(5) San Jose State vs. (4) Nevada
March 9, 5:30 p.m. EST

Speaking of teams that recently lost to Wyoming, Nevada probably needs two good wins this week to get back in the conversation for a tourney bid. However, San Jose State is the type of dangerous team that could stop the Wolf Pack before they get their first shot to impress in a potential semifinal against San Diego State.

The Spartans have a 20-point-per-game scorer in Omari Moore, but more importantly, only three Mountain West teams this season had a better shot selection than them. Additionally, no one shot threes and layups at a higher percentage of their total shots. Getting efficient shots leads to surprisingly good results, such as the Spartans' 5-2 regular-season finish.

Pick: San Jose State (+4.5 or better)

Late-round matchup to target

(3) Boise State vs. (2) Utah State
Semifinal, March 10

Boise State had more buzz coming into the season and would likely be a small favorite in a potential semifinal, but I'm backing Utah State. The Aggies have a slight advantage in both 3-point shooting and rebounding, but they outclass the Broncos in the shots they're able to get - they're best in the league in adjusted ShotQuality on offense and have a better rate of threes and shots taken at the rim. That's enough to give Utah State the edge to make the Mountain West championship game.

Pick: Utah State (-1 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

Boise State and Utah State have the same championship odds, but the Broncos have a tougher potential quarterfinal against UNLV.

The Aggies also have five different double-digit scorers, which shouldn't come as a surprise given that they've got the highest ShotQuality in the Mountain West at 1.15 points per possession. That gives them the best chance to topple San Diego State should the Aztecs, as expected, come out of the top half of the bracket.

Pick: Utah State (+380)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.