Lightning-Maple Leafs series preview: Betting by the numbers
For the majority of the campaign, the Lightning and Maple Leafs knew a rematch of last season's seven-game first-round series was coming. If preparation and familiarity lead to buttoned-up defenses, expect the under to be in play in each game of this first-round matchup.
This is despite a pair of rosters loaded with offensive talent - including Auston Matthews, Nikita Kucherov, Mitch Marner, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Brayden Point, William Nylander, and Mikhail Sergachev.
As fans of both teams can attest, last year's series was decided in a do-or-die game by a pair of goals from fourth-line support player Nicholas Paul. One year later, with Toronto again the site for a prospective Game 7, the Maple Leafs are favored by slightly more than last season.
Series odds
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | +125 | +130 | +1.5 (-175) |
| Maple Leafs | -145 | -150 | -1.5 (+140) |
The Leafs were just -120 to win this series last year - thanks to home-ice advantage - after a season in which the Lightning's metrics suggested they were the better team. Those same numbers show the Leafs' improvement and the Lightning's decline this season.
Ratings
Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.
| TEAM | SEASON | POST-ASB |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning | +17% | +2% |
| Maple Leafs | +19% | +4% |
For the entire season, the Lightning and Leafs both rated just below the top teams at 17% and 19% above an average NHL team, respectively. But since the All-Star break, both have slipped relative to their start. That could easily be attributed to having little or nothing to play for as the season progressed. The Bruins' incredible start meant there was little chance of catching them for the division, and there was no threat the Lightning or Leafs would be caught from behind to prevent this 2-3 divisional matchup.
Advanced metrics at even strength
XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate
| TEAM | XG% | HDC% | HDCV% | OPP. HDCV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | 51.9 | 54.8 | 11.6 | 10.2 |
| Maple Leafs | 53.5 | 54.2 | 11.2 | 9.1 |
*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%
Despite all the aforementioned scoring talent, both teams finished the season below average in converting their high-danger chances, and as a whole, they got excellent goaltending when it came to stopping opponents' high-danger chances.
Goaltending matchup
| PLAYER | GSAx/60 MIN |
|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 0.51 |
| Ilya Samsonov | 0.44 |
While not quite Vezina-level numbers, both Andrei Vasilevskiy and Ilya Samsonov stopped roughly a half goal more per game than an average goaltender would have. Since the All-Star break, though, Samsonov's play has improved, stopping .587 goals above expectation per 60 minutes, while Vasilevskiy's play dipped to less than .4 goals saved above expected.
Special teams
| TEAM | PP% | PK% | PP+PK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | 25.2 | 79.5 | 104.7 |
| Maple Leafs | 26.1 | 82.1 | 108.2 |
The Maple Leafs have the slightest advantage in special teams over the course of the regular season, but with the assumption of fewer power plays and a heightened level of game-planning for each coaching staff, I'd expect both penalty kills to win out, meaning power plays won't be the deciding factor.
Moneyline betting guide
If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.
Price to bet
| TEAM | NEUT. WIN PROB | GM 1/2/5/7 | GM 3/4/6 | SERIES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | 49% | +150 | -108 | +142 |
| Maple Leafs | 51% | -122 | +133 | -116 |
The small advantages in goaltending, special teams, and late-season even-strength play suggest the Leafs should be the slight favorite if this series were played out on a neutral site. Home-ice advantage for Game 7 pushes that price further, but -150 (60% implied win probability) for the series is too far.
Best bets
The numbers suggest that we're getting close to where the Lightning become a valuable bet, and Toronto's playoff history would help sway most in that direction. But when adding everything outside of the numbers, I'll invoke my right to pass on a pure side.
After three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final in an unusually condensed period of time, the Lightning may not have another gear - despite Jon Cooper pleading for his team to bring more intensity to the regular season. As a result, I've gone looking for the best value bet to back Toronto.
I have a fair price on Leafs -1.5 games at +169, but oddsmakers are dealing +140. Hopefully, that improves by puck drop with the market potentially expecting another close series, but that's a price I'd take if it's the best we can get. Also, under 5.5 total games is available at +170, and my fair price for that is +166 so there's some value in betting this series to end earlier than expected - one way or another.
Game 1: Under 6 goals (-120)
Series: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140 or better)
Series: Under 5.5 games (+170)
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.