Kraken-Avalanche series preview: Betting by the numbers

The days of the mispriced big underdog are long gone. Years ago, if a defending Stanley Cup champion who won a third straight division as part of their title defense took on a second-year expansion team in the first round, the champ would be a massive favorite.

Unfortunately, we know too much now. Thanks to the widespread availability of advanced metrics, we know the Avalanche didn't have the season they'd hoped for, while the Kraken weren't necessarily a fluke in securing the first wild card.

Series odds

Let's use a hypothetical when trying to frame the odds for this series.

You bet the Kraken to win, and they do. Shortly after the series, you mention that winning bet to a non-bettor friend, and, amazed at your foresight, they ask you what the payout was. If you said, "just better than 2-to-1," doesn't it feel like the odds aren't long enough for what seems like a somewhat monumental upset?

In turn, as we'll discover below, the odds might be too long relative to how each team performed this year. By comparing the numbers to the narrative, it feels like these prices are located somewhere in between, depending on your purview.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

The Kraken profile as the consistently inconsistent average NHL team that we often find in the category of borderline playoff participant. What makes this series so uncertain is that the Avalanche didn't profile that much better than average this season.

Advanced metrics at even strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = 12.5%

Both Seattle and Colorado excelled at converting whatever high-danger chances they managed at even strength, which were fewer than they surrendered. Avalanche goaltenders were much better at stopping opponents' high-danger chances, leading to Colorado's nine-point advantage in the standings.

Goaltending matchup

Philipp Grubauer faces his former team after Martin Jones didn't do nearly enough to take and hold onto the starting job. By comparison to his first season in Seattle, Grubauer's second campaign was an improvement, but he's still little more than replacement level.

Ironically, Alexandar Georgiev almost matched Darcy Kuemper's 0.29 GSAx from the 2021-22 regular season, which is what the Avalanche hoped for when they let Kuemper go and paid $2 million less for similar quality.

Special teams

The Avalanche had an almost identical power-play efficiency last season, but once the playoffs started, they flipped a switch to where they were making their opponents pay for taking penalties - converting almost one-third of their power plays.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide, where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

As we alluded to above, a metrics-based "price to bet" suggests that the Kraken are an auto-play on the series line and on a game-by-game basis as well. To complicate matters further, the Kraken had much better results on the road than at home this season, and their home-ice advantage credit had to be docked accordingly.

Best bet

While the comparable even-strength metrics suggest value on the Kraken, creating a path to victory for Seattle is difficult since there's little to suggest that the team's goaltending can be a positive difference-maker, and finding an edge via special teams seems unlikely as well. However, in a seven-game series, anything is possible.

What we may find with a pair of teams that had above-average HDC conversion rates and unspectacular goaltending is that betting on offense is the way to go for this series. Over 36 total goals for the series is a derivative market bet that provides one way to play this series on the idea that it goes long while maintaining the possibility that it could cash in just five games as well.

Looking ahead in this series, one spot where I'll take a chance with the value that the market is offering on the Kraken is in Game 3 - Seattle's first-ever Stanley Cup Playoffs game, where we should be getting a plus price on the moneyline.

Gabriel Landeskog isn't returning for the Avs, and Cale Makar has battled injury all season. We can't be certain the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner will play or sustain his usual level, which would really make Seattle a live underdog.

Should the Kraken series price get up to +250, that would be enough to coax me into taking a shot on Seattle, but a small bet on them to jump on the Avalanche - and close out the series before a Game 7 in Denver - is worth it at big odds.

Game 1: Over 6 goals (-110)
Series: Kraken -1.5 games (+425)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.