Kings-Oilers series preview: Betting by the numbers

It's another first-round rematch for a Canadian franchise as the Oilers find themselves facing the Kings - a team that took Connor McDavid and company to seven games last year. Since then, both teams revamped a questionable goaltending situation, improved their advanced metrics, and played better down the stretch of the regular season than they did at the start. For all that optimism, their reward is facing each other, and one way or another, a Western Conference contender will be sent home far too early.

Series odds

The game and series odds are comparable to last season's meeting, and the Kings can be found for as high as +210 in far away places. The Game 1 total opened the highest of any of the eight first-round series at 6.5, suggesting that the market is less certain either team has enough answers in net. Though the teams combined to go over 6.5 goals in only three of the seven games last year.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

For the season, the Kings played to a level 9% above league average but finished strong with even-strength play-rate that would make them comparable to the best teams in the NHL had they done so all season long. Part of that boost in metrics comes from keeping the puck out of the net, as their opponents scored on just 8.5% of their high-danger chances. The Oilers tantalized bettors with 18-3 moneyline record after March 1, but a look deeper at their play shows that might have been more than a little lucky.

Advanced metrics at even-strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

Since March 1st, the Oilers created 54.5% of the even-strength expected goals in their games and had 57.7% of the high-danger chances during 5-on-5 - two very good rates. In that same time frame, Los Angeles had shares of 56.5% and 59.4% in their games, but a three-game losing streak - where the Kings actually held the Oilers, Golden Knights, and Avalanche to single-digit even-strength high-danger chances - was the difference between their current resume and that of Edmonton.

Goaltending matchup

The Kings made the quietest big move at the NHL's trade deadline acquiring Joonas Korpisalo from Columbus, allowing them to literally go back-and-forth between him and Pheonix Copley throughout the stretch run. The Kings may have provided a hint that it will be Joonas carrying the wind for them to start, as he got the tune-up in the season finale on Thursday - the first back-to-back start for either Kings netminder. Since joining the Kings, he's stopped over a half-goal per game more than an average goaltender would.

Thankfully for Edmonton, Stuart Skinner stepped up when Jack Campbell faltered miserably. However, Skinner's numbers look a lot like Mike Smith's regular season stats from last year, so the hope in Edmonton is that his postseason numbers don't nosedive like Smith's in recent playoffs.

Special teams

Guess what? The Oilers' power play is awesome. The kind of awesome that will happen when you have a player on your team whose name rhymes with Lonner McShmavid. However, the Kings' power play is sneaky good, even if merely mortal at fourth in the league - just behind the Maple Leafs and Lightning. Neither team is particularly stingy on the penalty kill.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

Not surprisingly, despite largely even metrics, the brand power of McDavid and an 18-3 close to the season that's being attributed in part to the Oilers' added depth - particularly on defense with Mattias Ekholm - has made the Oilers prohibitive to bet. In turn, the value is squarely on the side of a relatively anonymous Kings team.

Best bets

This was the same situation last year, and the Kings pushed the Oilers to a deciding game in Edmonton. With Kings +1.5 widely available at even-money and my projected price for that at -169, even if you aren't willing to completely fade McDavid after an epic regular season, betting on a close series is probably a good idea. The over 5.5 games option is fairly priced at -165 as well.

A big x-factor for this series - outside of the inexperience in net on both sides - is that the Kings could get a boost from the return of wingers Kevin Fiala and Gabriel Vilardi. Adding that depth will give Los Angeles a better chance to win the ice time that McDavid is on the bench for - a key in any matchup with the Oilers.

That may not happen in Game 1, but a moneyline at better than +150 is hard to pass up after seeing the Kings take a pair of playoff games in Edmonton last season, including the series opener.

Game 1: Kings moneyline (+160 or better)
Series: Kings +1.5 games (+100)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.