NHL Friday best bets: Islanders to fight back vs. Hurricanes
Thursday night was a good one on the ice as we successfully backed the Maple Leafs to win in regulation and split our player props.
We'll aim to build on that with three more plays for Friday's slate of games.
Hurricanes (+100) @ Islanders (-120)
The Islanders have dropped the first two games of the series but it's been air tight. Both games were decided by one goal, and it's not as if the Islanders were getting cratered in the chance department. Quite the contrary.
New York has actually gotten the better of them thus far, at least at five-on-five.
Their expected goal share sits above 50% and they've generated eight more high-danger scoring opportunities than they've conceded. They're largely playing well.
The Hurricanes have simply been more clinical with their finishing and taken advantage of their chances, which has been the difference thus far.
I am skeptical that will continue. For one, the Islanders have the better goaltender in Ilya Sorokin. He is generally going to fare much better than Antti Raanta if given similar workloads.
Carolina is also losing scoring wingers like crazy. Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov were already sidelined heading into the series, and now Teuvo Teravainen is out for the foreseeable future.
Scoring is going to be a very tough task for a Hurricanes team that has been laboring offensively.
If the first two games are any indication, the Islanders should have at least a small edge at five-on-five. Throw in the better goaltender and a ruckus home crowd, and I like their chances of getting back into this series.
Bet: Islanders (-115)
Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-115)
Heiskanen has been a shooting machine through the first two games of the series. He has attempted 20 shots, equalling Jason Robertson and slotting behind only Adrian Kempe, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, and Cale Makar league-wide.
The double overtime game absolutely helped prop up his totals, but Heiskanen's volume - and efficiency - would look good even had both games ended in regulation.
Heiskanen has enjoyed a ton of success against the Wild. He has hit the over in five of six meetings this year and seven of nine dating back to last season.
He has also shown the ability to consistently get the job done come playoff time, having hit in six of his past seven games. That's impressive considering he faced a high-seeded Flames team last year and is now going up against a defense-first Wild roster.
Heiskanen will play a ton of minutes so long as the games are remotely close, which should be the case with Filip Gustavsson back in goal for Minnesota.
Look for him to make the most of his ice time and get the job done once again.
Adrian Kempe over 3.5 shots (+105)
Nobody in the playoffs has registered more shot attempts than Kempe through two games. Nobody.
The Kings' star sniper has been a man possessed thus far, using his speed to find open ice and frequently generating good looks despite getting the star treatment from the Oilers.
I expect Kempe's shooting success to continue Friday night at home. With last change, the Kings can control the matchups a little more and get Kempe out in more advantageous situations.
If Kempe could generate double-digit attempts in both games in Edmonton, it stands to reason he can have another strong shooting night in Los Angeles, where his shot volume was higher all season.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.