NFL betting: Using AFC win totals for an early analysis of market ratings
The NFL will unveil its 2023 season schedule Thursday. While we already know which matchups to expect, knowing exactly when each one takes place is helpful when it comes to betting win totals. After all, rest advantages and letdown spots can wreak havoc on a team's fortunes.
With rosters somewhat solidified following free agency and the draft, the schedule reveal will allow the astute NFL bettor to use season win total markets as somewhat reliable indicators of the betting market's overall sentiments about each team. Before that happens, let's re-examine the landscape.
For ease of use, we'll deploy a rating system scoring each team out of 100 and maintain that system throughout the season. To begin, we'll use the median win total prescribed by the market and apply that win percentage to create each team's first rating:
AFC Regular Season Win totals
| TEAM | RSW (Over odds) | RATING |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 11.5 (-135) | 69 |
| Bengals | 11.5 (-105) | 68 |
| Bills | 10.5 (-140) | 65 |
| Jaguars | 10.5 (+120) | 59 |
| Jets | 9.5 (-130) | 57 |
| Ravens | 9.5 (-125) | 57 |
| Chargers | 9.5 (-115) | 57 |
| Dolphins | 9.5 (+100) | 56 |
| Browns | 9.5 (+120) | 53 |
| Broncos | 8.5 (+100) | 50 |
| Steelers | 8.5 (+100) | 49 |
| Patriots | 7.5 (-125) | 46 |
| Titans | 7.5 (+100) | 44 |
| Raiders | 7.5 (+120) | 44 |
| Colts | 6.5 (-125) | 40 |
| Texans | 5.5 (-135) | 34 |
The Chiefs project as a team in the high 60s, but two alterations are necessary. Since Kansas City is -135 to go over 11.5, we've adjusted its rating to something of an 11.75-win team rather than an 11.5-win team.
Remember, a season win total is the prescribed median result for a team in the coming campaign. Hindering the Chiefs in their efforts to reach 12 wins is the fact that they play in the AFC West - arguably the NFL's toughest division. In fact, combining the win totals for every team in the AFC West yields 37 wins - almost 9% above .500. We don't mind boosting the Chiefs' rating by 9%, since this is a comparison to an average NFL team. With those two factors accounted for, the Chiefs' first rating goes from 67 to 73.
The AFC South, meanwhile, is considered the weakest division in the conference, with its teams totaling 30 projected wins. That's just 88% of 34 wins - the average total for four randomly selected teams.
The Chiefs had the highest actual win total last year; if we'd used the following formula to create a point spread between the 13-win Chiefs (76) and the NFL's worst team - the 3-13-1 Texans (20) - what would the projected point spread be?
In the NFL, we won't see a point spread of more than four touchdowns, so we use a maximum point spread of 28 points. Simply convert a team's rating out of 100 into a decimal number and multiply it by 28 for a point value.
| RATING(*28) | PT. DIFF. | |
|---|---|---|
| Texans | .20 x 28 | 5.5 |
| Chiefs | .76 x 28 | 21.5 |
That equals out to a 16-point spread. Next, add two points for home-field advantage: Kansas City would be -18 at home and -14 in Houston. Sure enough, in Week 15, the Chiefs closed -14 on the road against the Texans.
It's worth remembering that these win totals will change throughout the offseason, particularly when serious bettors attack this market with higher limits closer to the start of the campaign. Still, with schedule leaks already happening, we can use season win total markets to project the point spread for every game this coming season.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.