2024 NBA championship futures: Nuggets favored to defend title

Before Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray emerged from the rehab pool in the bowels of Ball Arena and long before Denver's celebratory parade concludes, oddsmakers were already zeroing in on the 2024 NBA championship race, primed for bets. That's because, in truth, this market was available days before the Larry O'Brien Trophy was handed to Stan Kroenke.

2024 NBA championship odds

If you looked at the first draft of next year's title odds, you would probably be shouting in your friends' ears too - the Celtics originally sat atop the list. But, the Nuggets solidified themselves as next year's favorites when they convincingly beat the Heat with what rarely resembled their A-game. Michael Malone even wasted no time in declaring - right there on the podium - that the Nuggets are looking to repeat, and one glance at the team's roster proves his confidence is warranted.

Along with Jokic and Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter are under contract for the next two seasons. Breakout role player Christian Braun is still on his rookie deal. The Nuggets aren't going anywhere.

That doesn't mean there won't be capable chasers. Last year at this time, the Warriors and Celtics were favored to meet again in the NBA Finals. Both saw those hopes dashed with significant roster issues - though the lineup troubles are not concerning enough to keep them out of the top five choices for 2024.

The other two teams lurking behind the Nuggets have their own set of excuses for this season - and reasons for optimism next year. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed half the Bucks' first round series with an injury, but next year is a fresh chance for him to prove his power. Meanwhile, the Suns hope that whoever they surround Kevin Durant and Devin Booker with this offseason can support the two stars' chances for success in the West.

The NBA is pretty predictable in the sense that one of the preseason favorites usually emerges victorious. The Nuggets, for example, were 14-1 in last year's look at the board immediately after the Warriors' parade confetti settled. Is there a similarly priced candidate this year that could mimic the Nuggets and create value by winning its conference and going into the playoffs with shorter odds?

The summer will undoubtedly bring some significant, unforeseen player movement, but the fatal flaws in the Clippers, Mavericks, Sixers, and Grizzlies are quite clear. Granted, Philadelphia already addressed one big issue by sending Doc Rivers packing and bringing in Nick Nurse. If the 76ers can get James Harden off the books and use that money to support Joel Embiid, this season's MVP, they would have the most upside of that group.

Simply put, the NBA champion isn't coming from the bottom half of the oddsboard. That's just not how the NBA works. However, it's worth mentioning that, at this time last year, the Knicks' odds were 250-1 - and that was before they added Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart. Not only did they make the second round, but they were even favored over the Heat. If they won that series, a 250-1 ticket could be hedged aggressively.

Considering current rosters (and how attractive each city is to potential stars), the Rockets (100-1) and Magic (150-1) each have enough exciting young pieces to make bettors wonder if any offseason moves could help lift them into the top six of their respective conferences.

With roughly 365 days between now and a championship bet payout, my best advice is to be on high alert for offseason acquisitions as market-moving players and potential key pieces like Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Fred VanVleet, and Deandre Ayton become available. Player movement is the only thing that can drastically shift the odds, and beating the market on those moves should be your only goal in making a bet this summer.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.