U.S. Open in-tournament betting: 5 golfers worth a look

For all the pre-tournament predictions permeating golf, the best bets are more often made amid a tournament. The reason is simple - we get more and better information via strokes gained metrics than anything we can conjure before an event even starts. We also pare down who can win, from the dozens of capable contenders Wednesday to those who have the week of their lives.

As a result, we've twice been able to find the eventual winner between Rounds 2 and 3 deep inside the numbers. Matthew Fitzpatrick's analytics looked promising before his first major title at the 2022 U.S. Open. Then, Brooks Koepka showed early signs of tee-to-green domination ahead of a 66-67 finish at last month's PGA Championship.

We didn't get the best payout either time, but we also were able to watch many top pre-tournament contenders fall off, while other big names took more implied win probability on the oddsboard than they should have.

Through 36 holes at Los Angeles Country Club, the leader - Rickie Fowler - is the rare combination of a big name who isn't yet a favorite.

U.S. Open in-tournament outright odds

We were given the impression that few thought LACC would suit Rory McIlroy, as he'd often be unable to unleash his driver. The course also provides more approach shots with a wedge than a usual U.S. Open event; McIlroy has struggled on those shots relative to the field this season.

Whoops.

Instead, McIlroy is the favorite through two rounds, and his strokes gained on the field have been spread between +3.48 tee to green, and +2.33 on the green. However, he's -10 on the front nine and +2 on the back nine, so the concern would be - at such a short price with an armada of contenders around him - that he'll be uncomfortable when it comes to winning time Sunday.

Of course, McIlroy isn't even in the lead. Fowler and Wyndham Clark are both ahead of him, but their margins are almost negligible with half the tournament still to play. Both players - along with Harris English - have slayed the greens and are in the top four in strokes gained: putting. That's the least sustainable method of scoring relative to the field.

So, who's capable of a big weekend?

Dustin Johnson (+1200 to win)

Despite trailing Xander Schauffele and Fowler after Round 1, Dustin Johnson was the leader in strokes gained: tee to green (+7.41) and sat around +900. On Friday, it took him two holes to give away most of his 6-under par with a quadruple-bogey, and his odds fell to as low as 50-1. Imagine where he might be if he just made a simple par.

That fiasco cost Johnson 3.75 strokes to the field, and all of them were attributed to his play from the tee to the green. So, while he was -1.03 strokes gained: tee to green for the round, he was +2.78 on the other 17 holes, which suggests that his overall ball-striking is still on point.

Johnson used a hot putter to claw his way back up both the leaderboard and oddsboard. If those two elements come together this weekend, and he avoids another quadruple-bogey, Johnson could follow in Koepka's footsteps as a LIV golfer to win a major. At better than 10-1, that's a price worth betting.

Derivative markets

When it comes to derivative betting markets, we're looking for players who did well in sustainable metrics tee to green but who gave strokes back putting.

Hideki Matsuyama (R3 H2H: -125 over Shane Lowry)

What else is new? Hideki Matsuyama crushed it tee to green but gave a ton back putting. Matsuyama's -2.75 strokes gained: tee to green means he could clean up in matchups or an in-tournament top-20 bet (+180) this weekend with just average putting.

Austin Eckroat (R3 H2H: -112 over Dylan Wu)

I can't pick Austin Eckroat out of a lineup, but he was second in ball-striking strokes gained Friday and in the top 10 overall. So, let's back him in any middle-tier matchup Saturday and +200 for a top-20 result.

Xander Schauffele (R3 H2H: +120 over Scottie Scheffler)

Schauffele fell off the lead and into the chasing peloton Friday, but that had more to do with putting struggles than his ball-striking. He actually still leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green, so playing him in matchups is a good way to back him without asking him to close out a first major win at a relatively short price.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.