2023 Las Vegas Raiders betting preview: A bad bet in Sin City?
Unlike Denver, the Raiders are bringing in a head coach who underachieved but wasn't fired while the veteran star quarterback took a major step back. Maybe it was the two victories over the Broncos, or the inexplicable win over the Patriots, or maybe Raiders owner Mark Davis didn't want to pay another coach, but Josh McDaniels is back again despite going 11-28 in his last 39 games as a bench boss.
The Raiders' new quarterback is Jimmy Garoppolo ... maybe. The expectation is that Garoppolo's foot will be ready for the season, and if it isn't - given the quarterback depth chart - Las Vegas is in big trouble. Even if Garoppolo plays 15 games for just the third time in his career, is that enough to change the Raiders' results for the better?
A 6-11 record was disappointing last season, but the Raiders still salvaged an 8-9 record against the spread, and that's the key point. For bettors, it doesn't matter if a team is bad as long as we know how bad they might be - and especially if they're not as bad as the betting market thinks.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 6.5 (-135) |
| Division | +1200 |
| Conference | +2200 |
| Super Bowl | +6000 |
| Estimated rating | 42/100 |
A rating in the low 40s is pretty close to where the Raiders were at the end of last season when they benched Derek Carr for the last two games under the guise of getting a look at Jarret Stidham. Stidham played quite well but they didn't retain him, opting to go with former Patriot Brian Hoyer and Purdue rookie Aidan O'Connell. With no other notable roster augmentation, positioning the Raiders any higher than last year seems optimistic.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @DEN | DEN -4 |
| 2 | @BUF | BUF -8 |
| 3 | PIT | PIT -1.5 |
| 4 | @LAC | LAC -5.5 |
| 5 | GB | LV -1.5 |
| 6 | NE | LV -1 |
| 7 | @CHI | CHI -1 |
| 8 | @DET | DET -4.5 |
| 9 | NYG | LV -1.5 |
| 10 | NYJ | NYJ -2.5 |
| 11 | @MIA | MIA -5.5 |
| 12 | KC | KC -5 |
| 14 | MIN | MIN -1 |
| 15 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 16 | @KC | KC -8.5 |
| 17 | @IND | LV -2 |
| 18 | DEN | DEN -1 |
The Raiders appear to be underdogs in their first four games, and if they don't win any of those, that streak may go on.
What's to like about the Raiders
Let's assume Garoppolo is healthy and remembers McDaniels' offensive system from four years ago. He's familiar with success in a run-heavy offense. While the position of running back has been devalued, Josh Jacobs led the NFL in rushing last year, and only six teams had more yards per attempt. Powerful running and quick passing to Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and a pair of good tight ends could keep the chains moving.
You could do worse than Maxx Crosby, who headlines a pass-rusher group the Raiders just bolstered with the seventh overall pick. The idea is that Tyree Wilson provides a boost to the sack column, non-Crosby division. Since quarterback pressure makes everything else easier, having this as a strength is better than any alternative.
What's not to like about the Raiders
The Raiders only had 27 total sacks, third-fewest in the league last year. That means there's a long way to go before they're impacting games beyond a couple big splash plays. As great as those tackles for loss are, there are so many other plays to defend without effective pressure. When our staff ransk your secondary second-worst in the league, it's a bad sign for the other plays from scrimmage.
We've touched on Garoppolo's injury and alluded to his past. We haven't addressed Jacobs' contract situation. Addressed in depth here, the possibility exists that he sits out to start the season. But even if he's back by Week 1, there may be some irreparable damage to Jacobs' relationship with the organization, including a hindrance to preparation behind a new quarterback. Normally, we'd make the argument that a replacement-level tailback could run for big numbers, but Jacobs seemed to win the rushing title despite an offensive line that graded out as mediocre at best.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | MVP | +8000 |
| Comeback POTY | +3000 | |
| Most passing yards | +3500 | |
| Most passing TD | +3500 | |
| Davante Adams | Offensive POTY | +2000 |
| Most receptions | +750 | |
| Most receiving yards | +1200 | |
| Most receiving TD | +1400 | |
| Josh Jacobs | Offensive POTY | +6000 |
| Most rushing yards | +1500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +1300 | |
| Maxx Crosby | Defensive POTY | +1500 |
| Most sacks | +2500 | |
| Michael Mayer | Offensive ROTY | +4000 |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +5000 | |
| Tyree Wilson | Defensive ROTY | +900 |
| Josh McDaniels | Coach of the Year | +3500 |
Like the Broncos, the Raiders have a quarterback with better odds to win Comeback Player of the Year than MVP. The best thing Garoppolo has going for him is a receiver who's among the top choices to lead the league in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Adams led the league in receiving touchdowns and was third in yardage, even with quarterback play that wasn't deemed good enough.
Quick - how old is Crosby?
If you're within one year of his current 25 years of age, give yourself a round of applause. It's possible he's yet to peak as a pass-rusher, and he should have Wilson and/or Chandler Jones balancing opponents' blocking schemes. He's more likely to make the leap into the high teens for sack totals than be anointed defensive player of the year, even though the odds suggest otherwise.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.