2023 Cleveland Browns betting preview: Watson's play is the key

Deshaun Watson looked bad last season. After returning from his 11-game suspension, he couldn't crack 170 passing yards in any of his three wins with the Browns. The losses were even uglier.

You hate to distill teams down to one player and the coach in a sport with 22 players on the field at one time. But whether it's Sean Payton's effect on Russell Wilson or Watson's ability to regain his form, these are the deciding factors in terms of which team to back and which team to fade.

The betting markets seem to be really bullish on Cleveland. Last season, the Browns were 8-9 against the spread, including 3-3 with Watson. Additionally, the market seemed to indicate they were a below-average team after making them 2.5-point underdogs against Washington. So, why are they now deemed better than average?

2023 season odds

Back in May, we used the Browns' opening win total to turn their projected 53% win percentage into a 53/100 rating. The four AFC North teams are projected for 39 of an available 68 total wins, the most of any division. So, we'll give each club a 7% bump in its rating relative to the league as a whole, putting the Browns at a starting point of 58.

Schedule outlook

Using a maximum betting line of 27 points, the Browns' 58/100 rating equates to 15.7 points. In Week 1, they face the Bengals, who have an estimated 74 rating. This translates to 20 points. A 4.3-point difference on a neutral field becomes Bengals -2.5 in Cleveland with a 1.8-point consideration for home-field advantage. If you think the "Dawg Pound" is worth more than that, or the line goes +3, the Browns may be the play given their historical success over Cincinnati.

What's to like about the Browns

ESPN rated the Browns' roster as the ninth best in the league. We've broken it down positionally, with Cleveland's secondary ranked seventh, its front seven ranked fourth after the addition of Za'Darius Smith, and its offensive line ranked fourth. Plus, we haven't even mentioned Nick Chubb, who's coming off a career high in rushing yards despite a merely tacit threat from the passing game.

Watson has a full offseason to regain his confidence and get comfortable with Kevin Stefanski's offense. With an elite offensive line and ground game, he just needs to be adequate. That's a low bar for a former MVP candidate.

What's not to like about the Browns

The pricing for the Browns' win total isn't all that low. Their Super Bowl odds are comparable to that of 8.5-win teams - the Vikings, Seahawks, and Broncos. So, if the Browns rack up 10 wins coming out of the AFC North, they're Super Bowl contenders by proxy. However, all of the credit the Browns are getting is largely theoretical. That's a dangerous place to be for a bettor.

Defining talent is hard. Remember when the Colts had the league's best offensive line? When the Buccaneers had a star-studded defense? Things move quickly in the NFL. Deep playoff runs rarely come from teams who are hyped on spec, unless their new quarterback is Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

Can Watson be Matthew Stafford? Can Amari Cooper be elite? Much of what we know about the Browns, we don't truly know at all.

Other notable betting markets

Stefanski's already won a Coach of the Year award, and it's very hard to top oneself in that category. Hardware might be in the cards for Myles Garrett, who's the second choice in both Defensive Player of the Year and most sacks markets.

Chubb is the favorite to lead the league in rushing. He's the second choice for most touchdowns at 9-1 behind Derrick Henry, who turns 30 this season and has seen his productivity dip from his peak in 2019 and 2020. Better Browns quarterback play should mean more chances to score for Chubb.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.