2023 Indianapolis Colts betting preview: Jumping to conclusions?

If anything sums up the vibes for the 2023 Indianapolis Colts, it might be this tweet from early June:

With all due respect to Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan, the unknown potential of Anthony Richardson's athleticism is giving the Colts' fan base double-exclamation-point excitement for the first time in a while. Even if the potential future franchise quarterback isn't ready to make a big leap right away, the not-quite-so-explosive Gardner Minshew can keep things interesting while supporting the first-round pick.

After a 6-11 campaign against the spread, what should we make of the Colts from a betting perspective this season?

2023 season odds

After being projected for 10 wins and nominated as the odds-on favorite in the AFC South last season, the Colts cratered deeper than many thought possible. All things being equal, 10 wins in 17 games would give Indy a 59% win probability against an average team. With Ryan out, a first-time head coach at the helm, and a relatively soft schedule, the Colts' rating has plummeted to the mid-30s.

Schedule outlook

If you're going to play the top two teams in the AFC North, you might as well do so on the road. Take the L as touchdown-plus underdogs and move on. Everything else is somewhat manageable. In Week 1, the team can even play the role of spoiler against the Jacksonville Jaguars for a change.

With a 55 rating, Jacksonville scores 14.9 points to the Colts' 10.1 on a scale with a max point spread of 27. That 4.8-point differential suggests around 1.5 points of home-field advantage in Indianapolis - confirmed by the Jags going from -3.5 on the road to a projected -6.5 in Jacksonville in Week 6.

What's to like about the Colts

Given Shane Steichen's success in using Jalen Hurts' size and athleticism, the Colts might not just start a new chapter in their offensive playbook - they could open an entire volume with Richardson. If he isn't ready to succeed in Week 1, at least Minshew knows Steichen's calls from last year in Philadelphia.

That's relevant because the rest of the roster isn't all that different from before last season - when expectations were higher. The Colts didn't lose anyone they weren't probably OK with losing. Most importantly, Shaquille Leonard is moving without pain, which seems pretty critical to athletic success. The Colts' leader and star defender played just parts of three games last year, and if he's back to 100%, it could feel like adding an All-Pro defender for free.

What's not to like about the Colts

We're not crazy about the Colts' secondary, ranking it 30th in the league. That might be harsh if you think Stephon Gilmore is a bigger loss than I do, but there isn't anyone the opposition needs to avoid in coverage. Yannick Ngakoue, who had 9.5 of the Colts' 44 sacks last year, also departed but is still without a team. There's a lot of reliance on Kwity Paye to take a big step as a pass-rusher and Leonard to be the do-it-all player he used to be when he made everyone around him better. That said, the bar of expectations for a 6.5-win team is a lot different than when Indy was deemed a 10-win team.

Other notable betting markets

Remember that new volume of plays that the Colts have access to with Richardson under center? The threat of the quarterback doing damage by taking off from the pocket should provide more space for Jonathan Taylor, and Indianapolis's offensive line - specifically Quenton Nelson - has something to prove after a falloff. In just his fourth year, Taylor's got plenty left for a big season in the statistical categories, and he might even manage the murky waters of how voters may define Comeback Player of the Year.

Josh Downs once looked like he might be the best receiving prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft. Something as arbitrary as "most rookie receiving yards" might be up for grabs in a year in which no receiver was taken until the 20th pick. At 45-1, that's worth a flier.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.