2023 Tennessee Titans betting preview: What to croon about in Nashville
If you haven't thought about the Titans since early January, who could blame you? Same coach, same defense, same star tailback, and same quarterback (for now). You've probably already forgotten about their first-round pick, Peter Skoronski. It's all decidedly unsexy, which is exactly how head coach Mike Vrabel would want it for his constantly underrated team. Even a disappointing 7-10 season was not bad for bettors, as Tennessee went 9-6-2 against the spread.
The Titans jumped back into our consciousness with the signing of DeAndre Hopkins over the weekend. It was an addition that made all kinds of sense given Vrabel has more career touchdown receptions than any of his pass-catchers.
How did adding a top-flight veteran receiver - who's provided a little flash in the past - change the betting market's view of the Titans? Simply put, it didn't.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 7.5 (-105) |
| Division | +325 |
| Conference | +5000 |
| Super Bowl | +7500 |
| Estimated rating | 42/100 |
We estimated the Titans' market rating in the mid-40s back in May, and once you factor in their weak division and a schedule crossover to the NFC's weakest division, we'll drop them down a couple of notches before we start looking at their point spreads for the season.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @NO | NO -3 |
| 2 | LAC | LAC -3.5 |
| 3 | @CLE | CLE -4.5 |
| 4 | CIN | CIN -4.5 |
| 5 | @IND | IND -1 |
| 6 | BAL* | BAL -5.5 |
| 8 | ATL | TEN -1 |
| 9 | @PIT | PIT -4 |
| 10 | @TB | TEN -1 |
| 11 | @JAX | JAX -5 |
| 12 | CAR | TEN -1 |
| 13 | IND | TEN -2.5 |
| 14 | @MIA | MIA -7 |
| 15 | HOU | TEN -3 |
| 16 | SEA | SEA -2 |
| 17 | @HOU | TEN -1 |
| 18 | JAX | JAX -2.5 |
*Neutral-site game in London
The Titans take a trip to England for a rare neutral-site game against the Ravens. As a 9.5-win team, the Ravens have a projected average win probability in the low-to-mid 60s. On a point-spread scale of 27 points, Baltimore earns 16.6 points. On the same scale, the Titans earn 42% of 27 points, or 11.2. That can explain how the Ravens are -5.5 in the lookahead line for Week 6.
What's to like about the Titans
Even after an 11-5 season in 2020, the Titans frequently surpassed expectations by going 19-13-2 against the spread in the past two seasons. In certain games last year, Vrabel was forced to use rookie QB Malik Willis, who wasn't ready to take NFL snaps. The club then picked up Joshua Dobbs off the street and was still competitive late in the year.
We like continuity, and the Titans have that despite changing offensive coordinators, as they promoted Tim Kelly after parting ways with Todd Downing. However, if you were hoping for a revamping of the Titans' strategy with the ball, you might be disappointed.
Whether or not you believe the Titans were looking to trade Derrick Henry - who turns 30 this year - he played in 16 of 17 games last year and had another 1500-yard, double-digit touchdown season. Pair that with a defense boasting both Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons in the pass rush, and Tennessee will find itself in a lot of games.
What's not to like about the Titans
The Titans seem like they're putting in a half-effort to replace Ryan Tannehill. Their quarterback - entering the season at 35 years old - doesn't have the same athleticism he once did and has long since reached his peak. Tennessee has loaded the QB room with raw prospects in Willis and Will Levis, neither of whom you'll want to back if they start any games this season. As mentioned above, the receiving group is thin, as we had it rated dead last before the Hopkins signing, and it's not like teams were moving heaven and earth to pick him up.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | MVP | +10000 |
| Offensive POTY | +10000 | |
| Most passing yards | +10000 | |
| Most passing TD | +10000 | |
| Derrick Henry | Offensive POTY | +2500 |
| Most rushing yards | +900 | |
| Most rushing TD | +550 | |
| DeAndre Hopkins | Offensive POTY | +4000 |
| Most receiving yards | +5000 | |
| Comeback POTY | +7000 | |
| Will Levis | Offensive ROTY | +4000 |
| Most rookie passing yards | +4000 | |
| Tyjae Spears | Offensive ROTY | +5000 |
| Harold Landry | Defensive POTY | +10000 |
| Most sacks | +7500 | |
| Jeffery Simmonds | Defensive POTY | +15000 |
| Most sacks | +20000 | |
| Kevin Byard | Defensive POTY | +15000 |
| Mike Vrabel | Coach of the Year | +3500 |
A veteran quarterback who's 100-1 in all the awards and statistical markets is a very bad sign.
Henry's ceiling is probably last year's season, and he wasn't all that close to leading any of the categories that he's priced short for. I'd much rather take a swing with someone at longer odds who hasn't hit his peak.
Landry is somewhat forgotten after missing the entire 2022 campaign with a knee injury, but he had 12 sacks in 2021. The Titans only totaled 39 sacks last year, but if Landry - still just 27 - is as good as new with both Simmons and Denico Autry sharing attention in protection, maybe a 16-sack season is possible. That total would give him a shot to cash a big ticket in the market for most sacks.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.