CFB win totals 1st look: Can Alabama return to prominence in the SEC?

College football's most dominant conference aims to provide its fifth straight national championship-winning side. The SEC's Georgia and Alabama are the country's two favorites to win the national title at +225 and +600, respectively. LSU is the fifth favorite at +1200.

The Bulldogs - the SEC's sole representative in the College Football Playoff last season - have an 11.5 win total, giving them virtually no margin for error with a 12-game schedule.

After breaking down the best win total bets in the Big Ten and ACC, it's time for the SEC.

SEC win totals

Odds via theScore Bet

Auburn under 6.5 wins

A general rule of thumb when searching for win totals is to fade first-year head coaches. Hugh Freeze is back in the SEC as the face of Auburn after controversy forced him to resign from Ole Miss in 2017.

Freeze has a record of resurrecting struggling programs - which is exactly why Auburn hired him - but the process will take more than one year.

Auburn hasn't been a contender in the SEC in quite some time, and it's coming off consecutive losing seasons for the first time since the '90s.

The Tigers are relying on a slew of transfers on both sides of the ball, many of whom are unproven. Auburn's offense ranked 11th in the SEC in scoring last season. Amid an ongoing quarterback battle, Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne is the favorite to land the starting job and kick-start an offense on life support.

Auburn is a projected underdog in six of its games this season. It opens the season with an easy nonconference schedule against UMass, California, and Samford. The Tigers then face a brutal four-game stretch against Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss.

There's a path for Auburn to win six games. A bowl appearance in Year 1 for Freeze should be considered a success. Finding that seventh win, however, won't be easy.

Pick: Under 6.5 wins +110

Alabama over 10.5 wins

It's hard to take the over on a team with as much hype and expectation as Alabama. Yet the Crimson Tide lost twice last season, missed out on the playoff, and play in the same conference as Georgia, the new king of college football. Some doubt Alabama will ever return to prominence.

I'm here to tell you that it will. Alabama has a great chance to return to the playoff and even win the SEC (+300). Nick Saban can will this group to 11 wins, and with over 10.5 at plus money, it's too good of an opportunity to pass on.

Alabama has a favorable schedule and avoids Georgia. While Alabama does play Tennessee and LSU in back-to-back weeks - both of whom it lost to last season - the Crimson Tide are a projected favorite against both.

Tennessee has to travel to Tuscaloosa (luckily for the school's goalposts), and if we've learned anything about Saban's motivational tactics, Alabama's upset loss to the Vols is surely indoctrinated into the players.

Tennessee is also expected to regress this season after a 10-2 year and an Orange Bowl appearance.

Texas A&M could present a challenge on the road, but there's no shortage of talent in Alabama. With the departures of quarterback Bryce Young and defensive end Will Anderson to the NFL, some unfamiliar faces will take the field Saturdays.

Alabama's wagon will continue to roll with new stars hopping on along the way. Tyler Buchner, Jalen Milroe, and Ty Simpson are all competing for the starting quarterback job. Alabama hasn't had an issue at quarterback in years, so it's fair to assume whoever Saban chooses is bound for success.

Alabama is projected to be favored by at least a touchdown in every one of its games, according to VSiN. An upset loss to a worthy contender is likely, but this group can easily land on 11 wins.

Pick: Over 10.5 wins +140

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.