2023 Carolina Panthers betting preview: Success on the shoulders of Bryce Young
The last time the Panthers had a franchise quarterback they could feel good about was in 2018. Patience is a virtue and all that, but enough was enough in Carolina. The team gave the Bears everything they needed for the first overall pick, all so it could take the quarterback with the most exciting future - 2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young.
Like the Falcons, the Panthers went 7-10 on the field last season but were a marginally profitable 9-8 against the spread. However, they gave three quarterbacks four or more starts each and fired head coach Matt Rhule midway through the season. Judging this team by the standards of Rhule's tenure and a carousel of Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold doesn't make much sense. The Panthers have a largely clean slate going into 2023, which doesn't mean expectations are necessarily all that low, either.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 7.5 (-125/+105) |
| Division | +325 |
| Conference | +3500 |
| Super Bowl | +7500 |
| Estimated rating | 45/100 |
The market has tempered some of its initial enthusiasm for the Panthers, as it initially took enough money for the price of over 7.5 wins to hit -160. Carolina enters the season rated as a slightly below-average team and the third choice to win a wide-open NFC South.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2 | NO | NO -1 |
| 3 | @SEA | SEA -4 |
| 4 | MIN | MIN -1.5 |
| 5 | @DET | DET -5 |
| 6 | @MIA | MIA -7 |
| 8 | HOU | CAR -3 |
| 9 | IND | CAR -2.5 |
| 10 | @CHI | CHI -2 |
| 11 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 12 | @TEN | TEN -1 |
| 13 | @TB | TB -1 |
| 14 | @NO | NO -3.5 |
| 15 | ATL | CAR -1 |
| 16 | GB | GB -1 |
| 17 | @JAX | JAX -5 |
| 18 | TB | CAR -2.5 |
Using an estimation of 27 being the highest possible point spread in the modern NFL, the Falcons' 49/100 rating gives them 13.2 out of 27 points. In Week 1, they host Carolina - which is worth 12.1. That's a difference of 1.1 points on a neutral field, and the Falcons are getting almost two points of home-field advantage in the opener. When they face each other in Week 15, it's the Panthers who get two points of home-field advantage in the projected line and are favored by a point.
What's to like about the Panthers
The Panthers had minimal top-end talent at the skill positions last season, and poor quarterback play limited D.J. Moore, their best weapon. To win as many games as it did, Carolina ran the ball behind and through the holes created by a good run-blocking offensive line. Miles Sanders comes over from the Eagles to be a more explosive, versatile version of D'Onta Foreman within former Philadelphia offensive coordinator Frank Reich's system.
Carolina can rely on Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, Shaq Thompson, and Jaycee Horn defensively. The team pulled off a coup with the hiring of Ejiro Evero as defensive coordinator. Evero was regarded highly enough to interview for the Panthers' head coaching gig, so they picked up something of a two-for-one deal in that process.
What's not to like about the Panthers
Getting your quarterback of the future means spending future capital. The Panthers moved Moore - their best offensive weapon - and replaced him with Adam Thielen and DJ Chark. Thielen is in his 10th season at 32 years old, while Chark's on his third team after playing just 15 games over the last two seasons. These are stopgap options at best.
The Panthers are another good draft away from infusing enough talent around Young. However, they don't have their first-round pick next year to improve their offensive speed to even match what their quarterback became accustomed to at Alabama.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | MVP | +15000 |
| Offensive ROTY | +500 | |
| Most rookie passing yards | -115 | |
| Most passing yards | +8000 | |
| Most passing TD | +7500 | |
| Miles Sanders | Offensive POTY | +15000 |
| Most rushing yards | +3000 | |
| Most rushing TD | +4000 | |
| DJ Chark | Most receptions | +10000 |
| Most receiving yards | +15000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +10000 | |
| Adam Thielen | Most receptions | +8000 |
| Most receiving TD | +6000 | |
| Brian Burns | Defensive POTY | +3000 |
| Most sacks | +2500 | |
| Jaycee Horn | Defensive POTY | +8000 |
| Frank Reich | Coach of the Year | +2500 |
The Panthers' top candidate for Offensive Player of the Year among their skill position players has odds of 150-1. That's either a really bad sign or great value on Sanders if he has a season reminiscent of Christian McCaffrey. The latter option seems far-fetched.
Burns is entering his fifth season and is just 25 years old. He missed a game and still had a career-high of 12.5 sacks last season. At 25-1 for most sacks, the upside is there for him to increase his total from last year.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.