2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting preview: Over or underrated post-Brady?

The 2022 Buccaneers were a massive disappointment - unless, of course, you considered early on that a Tom Brady-led team might actually stink.

As we like to remind ourselves before a season starts, a team can delight in its failure. Fading the Bucs last season won at a clip of 75% as they went 4-12-1 against the spread. The best ATS team last year - the 49ers - covered at a 65% clip. It goes to show that it's easier to win money by blindly fading an overrated team than it is to back a team to keep covering. Successful teams get noticed and adjusted more quickly than disappointing ones.

Brady is now gone, so there's little chance for the 2023 Bucs to be overrated, especially since his presumed replacement - Baker Mayfield - is 27-41-1 against the spread over the last five seasons.

2023 season odds

Oddsmakers thought 6.5 wins was low enough, but the market still took the under down to a point where you have to pay -140 to fade the Bucs on the season. By the end of last season, the Buccaneers were home underdogs in the playoffs against the Cowboys, the type of situation befitting an average team at best. Remove Brady from that equation and a rating of 37 out of 100 might still not be low enough.

Schedule outlook

At first glance at their schedule, it'll be hard to accuse the Buccaneers of being overrated since they're not projected to be favored until Week 13 when they host the Panthers. Using an estimation of -27, which is the highest possible point spread in the modern NFL, the Buccaneers' 37/100 rating gives them 10 out of 27 points on that scale. In Week 1, they visit the Vikings - which is worth 13.7. That's a 3.7-point difference on a neutral field, but the point spread is 6.5. That should move downward, but if it doesn't and it touches +7, the Bucs are worth a bet.

What's to like about the Buccaneers

Not everyone left Tampa Bay, and many of the veterans who did, aren't on NFL rosters as of Aug. 1. It doesn't appear that teams have been clamoring to hand out contracts to Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate, Julio Jones, Akiem Hicks, Carl Nassib, and Logan Ryan. Clearing out the aged players and replacing them with younger options allows the Bucs to keep Devin White, Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea, and the majority of a secondary still in its prime.

As a former first overall pick and Heisman winner, Mayfield's been through enough in his brief career to be uniquely qualified to handle the pressure of replacing Brady. Having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin - both still under 30 - to throw to is a better situation than most quarterbacks on their fourth team get. Mayfield impressed in his cameo with the Rams last year, and you'd have to think this is his last chance to take ownership of an offense.

What's not to like about the Buccaneers

As many veteran stars as the Bucs have returned, they're going to see a shake-up on the offensive line after Donovan Smith and Shaq Mason were signed by the Chiefs and Texans, respectively. With Mayfield not known for being cool under pressure, Tristan Wirfs' move to the left side will have to be seamless, Ryan Jensen has to stay healthy, and the three young replacements on the offensive line need to develop into trustworthy, durable options.

Other notable betting markets

Normally, the head coach of a team expected to be bad is a contender for Coach of the Year because the bar is set so low. Three of the top four choices in this market are Sean Payton, Matt Eberflus and Arthur Smith. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles, however, is the longest shot to win this award - an indictment of how he's thought of by oddsmakers and the market alike.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.