Wyndham Championship betting preview: Which J.T. will come up clutch?
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The PGA TOUR heads into its final event of the 2022-23 regular season schedule with the Wyndham Championship from Greensboro, North Carolina.
Sedgefield Country Club will host a 156-man field for the 16th consecutive year. Tom Kim is the defending champion but had to withdraw from the tournament due to an ankle injury he sustained during the Open Championship.
Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, and Justin Thomas headline the field full of players vying for a coveted spot in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Only the top 70 in points will advance to next week's first postseason event.
The course
- Sedgefield Country Club, Greensboro, North Carolina
- 7,131 yards, par 70
- Bermuda grass greens
- Seven par 4s under 430 yards
- Shorter course that benefits accuracy and iron play
Comparable courses: Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Sea Island (RSM Classic), and Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge)
Past champions
2022: Tom Kim (-20) over John Huh, Sungjae Im
2021: Kevin Kisner (-15) in a six-man playoff
2020: Jim Herman (-21) over Billy Horschel
2019: J.T. Poston (-22) over Webb Simpson
2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21) over Webb Simpson, C.T. Pan
2017: Henrik Stenson (-22) over Ollie Schniederjans
2016: Si Woo Kim (-21) over Luke Donald
The favorites
| Player | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Si Woo Kim | +1800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2000 |
| Russell Henley | +2000 |
| Sam Burns | +2000 |
| Sungjae Im | +2000 |
Si Woo Kim moved into the favorite position after opening in the mid +2000 range. He won the event back in 2016 and has placed inside the top five in three straight appearances at Sedgefield. Despite a ton of success at this tournament, backing the Korean as the favorite doesn't feel like a valuable wager. Perhaps a top-10 bet at +240 is the way to go with Kim.
Sam Burns is the only name of the other four favorites that's worth consideration at +2000. He wins the most often out of this group with five titles under his belt since 2021, so the price is certainly fair. However, there's much to be desired from his recent form with only one top-10 result since mid-March.
The next tier
| Player | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Denny McCarthy | +2200 |
| J.T. Poston | +3000 |
| Shane Lowry | +3000 |
| Aaron Rai | +3500 |
| Alex Smalley | +3500 |
| Justin Thomas | +3500 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3500 |
| Adam Scott | +4000 |
| Byeong Hun An | +4000 |
| Cam Davis | +4000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +4000 |
| Adam Hadwin | +4500 |
| Beau Hossler | +4500 |
| Chris Kirk | +4500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +4500 |
| Taylor Moore | +4500 |
Denny McCarthy and J.T. Poston are both worth a look in this next tier.
Even though he missed the cut at The Open, McCarthy is playing some fantastic golf with three top-10 results in his last five starts. Sedgefield fits his game wonderfully. If the flatstick can get hot - he's one of the best putters in the world - then reaching the 20-under score required to contend is definitely a possibility.
Poston is a former winner of the Wyndham and came second at the 3M Open last week. He also came T6 at the John Deere Classic and Scottish Open, making it three top-six results in his last four starts.
Alex Smalley is a Greensboro resident and leads the field in strokes gained: approach over the past 12 rounds. His odds opened significantly longer than +3500, which is as short as you'd want to go if you were considering betting on the former Duke Blue Devil.
Finally, Justin Thomas shockingly finds himself on the outside of the top 70 on the FedEx Cup points list. This will be his last chance to continue his season. He needs to finish solo 18th or better to accumulate enough points to advance. Thomas is in terrible form with five missed cuts in his last seven starts and will need to turn things around in a hurry if he wants to reach the postseason.
Long shots
This tournament has been kind to long shots in recent years with Jim Herman and Poston winning with odds over +10000. Let's take a look at a few with longer odds that could continue this trend.
- Alex Noren (+6600): The Swede came T13 last week in Minnesota and earned a top-25 result at The Open. Noren is in fine form and Sedgefield should fit his style of play very well.
- Taylor Pendrith (+7000): He missed the cut on the number last week at the 3M Open despite gaining 2.4 strokes tee to green. Pendrith is still in good form and could easily overpower Sedgefield.
- Garrick Higgo (+7500): The South African placed T13 last week for a fourth straight result where his finishing position improved upon the previous start. He's knocking on the door of a contending real soon.
- Kevin Yu (+8000): Yu gained 9.4 strokes tee to green last week but gave 5.8 back on the greens. If he can replicate his ball-striking and improve with the putter, another top finish - he placed T6 at the John Deere Classic - is in the cards.
- Zac Blair (+22500): Sedgefield is one of a handful of courses where the short-hitting Blair can contend. He gained strokes in all four categories last week en route to a T13 showing.
Picks to win
J.T. Poston (+3000)
Poston is playing exceptionally well, and it's time to strike while the iron is hot. The two-time PGA TOUR winner knows how to get it done when he's in contention and isn't afraid to stack back-to-back outstanding starts. Prior to his last win at the 2022 John Deere Classic, he came T2 at the Travelers the week before. We share that because he came T2 last week in Minnesota.
He gained 5.4 strokes through approach shots and another 4.8 on the greens last week at TPC Twin Cities. This is the exact recipe he used to win his first tournament at the 2019 Wyndham Championship when he gained 6.8 strokes with his irons and 4.1 on the greens.
Billy Horschel (+5000)
Horschel showed signs of life in Minnesota last week where he came in a tie for 13th and gained 4.1 strokes tee to green and 3.5 putting. That was his first tournament of gaining 7.5 total strokes or more since the CJ Cup in October.
We're trying to be early on Horschel at an inflated number. He's a proven winner with seven PGA TOUR victories and has had success in Greensboro in the past. He was a runner-up in 2022 and has three other top-11 finishes at the event since 2016.
Lucas Glover (+9000)
Now is not the time to jump off the Glover bandwagon. Yes, he missed the cut at the 3M Open, but he fell a shot shy of making the weekend and still gained 1.9 strokes tee to green in two rounds.
The 43-year-old has a ton of experience at the Wyndham, having played Sedgefield 13 times in his career. In those starts, he's placed inside the top 30 on seven occasions with his best finish a T7 in 2010. He gained strokes tee to green in every appearance but one.
Glover leads the field in strokes gained: ball-striking over the past 12 rounds and is second over the past 24 rounds. He's in fantastic form and is one good putting week away from winning his fifth PGA TOUR event.