2023 Washington Commanders betting preview: A thin line between love and hate
We conclude our summer NFL team-by-team previews with an example of how thin the line is between love and hate. Last season, the Commanders were separated between respect and ill-repute by a couple of brief moments.
With the Giants leading the Commanders during a pivotal Week 15 Sunday Night Football game despite being outgained 408-228, New York sacked Taylor Heinicke to force a Washington field goal that would cut the hosts' deficit to two. But someone on the Giants noticed that Heinicke fumbled, and a subsequent challenge gave New York the ball.
Then, after a Giants field goal, the Commanders drove the field and seemingly scored a touchdown that would set them up to tie the game. However, the points were taken off the board after they were flagged for illegal formation.
This close loss, in which they were 4-point favorites and coming off a bye, was the death knell to the Commanders' season. It was the difference between them being 8-5-1 with a playoff spot in sight and 7-6-1 with the Giants in the driver's seat. Afterward, Washington was quickly forgotten.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 6.5 (+110/-130) |
| Division | +1600 |
| Conference | +5000 |
| Super Bowl | +7500 |
| Estimated rating | 37/100 |
The Commanders - 8-8-1 straight up and against the spread last season - were largely forgettable, but they weren't bad. A 6.5 win total with plus money on the over suggests a team that's on the level of the Colts or Buccaneers, but Washington was rated higher than that during the end of last season.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | WSH -6 |
| 2 | @DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 3 | BUF | BUF -4.5 |
| 4 | @PHI | PHI -7 |
| 5 | CHI | WSH -1.5 |
| 6 | @ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 7 | @NYG | NYG -2.5 |
| 8 | PHI | PHI -4 |
| 9 | @NE | NE -3.5 |
| 10 | @SEA | SEA -4 |
| 11 | NYG | NYG -1.5 |
| 12 | @DAL | DAL -6 |
| 13 | MIA | MIA -3.5 |
| 15 | @LAR | LAR -1 |
| 16 | @NYJ | NYJ -5.5 |
| 17 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 18 | DAL | DAL -3 |
Despite their poor rating, the Commanders open the season -6 at home to the Cardinals, the first of just two times they're projected favorites. With an estimated -27 being the highest-possible point spread in the modern NFL, the Commanders' 37/100 rating gives them 10 out of 27 points on that scale.
The Cardinals - deemed the NFL's worst team - are worth 6.8 for a 3.2-point difference on a neutral field. Washington appears to be getting 2.8 points of home-field advantage, but Arizona's rating is based on a season win total that accounts for Kyler Murray returning at some point. If the Cardinals start Clayton Tune in Week 1, who knows how bad they might actually be?
What's to like about the Commanders
It's impossible to quantify, but, by all reports, the energy around Washington is infinitely better after Dan Snyder sold the team. It was hard to assign any home-field advantage to the Commanders, but they might have a beneficial environment.
Between the lines, Washington's defense was top 10 in yards per play allowed and sixth in sack percentage thanks to one of the league's scariest defensive lines with Chase Young, Daron Payne, Montez Sweat, and Jonathan Allen. The Commanders made a point to improve the secondary by using their first- and second-round picks on defensive backs.
What's not to like about the Commanders
Sam Howell is as much an uncertainty as there is at the quarterback position this season. Once thought to be a first-round talent, Howell's wild play at North Carolina made him a fifth-round pick. He's playing behind an offensive line that's shaky at best. However, Howell has mobility, and Washington hired Eric Bieniemy as its new offensive coordinator. Bieniemy has experience with moving Patrick Mahomes behind mediocre Chiefs offensive lines.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | MVP | +10000 |
| Most passing yards | +10000 | |
| Most passing TD | +6500 | |
| Brian Robinson | Most rushing yards | +6500 |
| Most rushing TD | +3500 | |
| Terry McLaurin | Offensive POTY | +7500 |
| Most receptions | +7500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +5000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +5000 | |
| Chase Young | Defensive POTY | +5000 |
| Comeback POTY | +5000 | |
| Most sacks | +7500 | |
| Jonathan Allen | Defensive POTY | +20000 |
| Daron Payne | Defensive POTY | +20000 |
| Most sacks | +7500 | |
| Montez Sweat | Defensive POTY | +20000 |
| Most sacks | +5000 | |
| Emmanuel Forbes | Defensive ROTY | +2000 |
| Ron Rivera | Coach of the Year | +3500 |
Terry McLaurin is used to questionable quarterback play, but until he has someone reliable throwing him the ball, there's a ceiling on his production.
If all four-star defensive linemen are causing opponents havoc, how do you pick which one would be the prime Defensive Player of the Year candidate?
After a 7.5-sack rookie campaign, Young had just 1.5 sacks before tearing up his knee in 2021. The idea that he'd return better than ever is something of a leap of faith. However, Young's entering a contract year, and it's not like opponents can risk shifting protection to account for him only. A big season would also put Young squarely in the mix for Comeback Player of the Year.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.