NFL season-long props: Most points scored

For the first time since 2018, the Chiefs led the NFL in points scored last season. Given the explosiveness of the Andy Reid-conducted offense with supreme first chair Patrick Mahomes, that's something of a surprise.

There are no surprises atop the oddsboard for most points scored in 2023. It's difficult to envision a team with long odds lighting up the scoreboard. We should be looking for a reliable offense versus crossing our fingers that a team will make a significant leap.

Most points scored odds

Not surprisingly, the history of teams that have scored the most points in a season is littered with Hall of Fame-bound quarterbacks. One exception came two years ago when the Cowboys' defense had an inordinate amount of return touchdowns to boost the total. The other example featured a passer who might be ready to repeat the feat.

Best bet

Detroit Lions (+1400)

Jared Goff has been at the helm of the highest-scoring offense before.

However, the 2017 Rams offense was largely known for Sean McVay's offensive play-calling and an outstanding ground game headlined by Todd Gurley. This season, a further developed Goff has offensive mastermind Ben Johnson calling the plays. The quarterback also has a fully healthy offensive line with Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, and Penei Sewell.

Detroit should be in plenty of back-and-forth games that go down to the wire this season thanks to a defense I'm not convinced is good enough to shut opponents down. Playing all 60 minutes with urgency is helpful for any volume stat.

Finally, the Lions will play just five games outdoors, with four of those coming Week 7 or earlier. Just a trip to Chicago on Dec. 10 could have grim weather conditions. However, the Lions scored 31 points against the Bears in mid-November last season, and Chicago hasn't exactly revamped a defense that gave up the most points in the league in 2022.

Detroit scored the fifth-most points last season despite three offensive hiccups. The Lions were shut out against Bill Belichick's Patriots in Week 5, then had chilly trips to face the Jets' defense and Green Bay in the season finale. Detroit goes to Green Bay in September, and there are no Jets or Belichick defenses in sight. That should help the Lions make up the 2.5 points per game they finished behind Kansas City last year, making them a good bet at decent-sized odds to lead the NFL in points scored.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.