NFL season prop betting: Last undefeated team

There are really good futures bets, the kind that keep you interested for the entirety of the season and culminate with some sort of big win. The 2022 Eagles to win the NFC qualified as one of them. But if you can find similarly priced bets that give you the payout early, you can do more with your money for the balance of the season. Those are few and far between, but Philadelphia came through again as the last undefeated team in the NFL last year.

Last undefeated team

Odds via theScore Bet

After all, you can't lose if you don't play.

This market is the only one where when you have your bye week matters. 4-0 after five weeks is just as good as 5-0. The edge is in the six teams that have their week off early - Week 5 or Week 6. In the NFL, a team probably only needs to be undefeated after five or six weeks to be the last to suffer a loss.

With apologies to Tampa Bay, they're starting the season as touchdown underdogs in Minnesota, have the Eagles in Week 3, and then are projected 5.5-point 'dogs in New Orleans in Week 4. A 4-0 start would be mind-boggling. That leaves three other contenders at mid-level odds.

The Browns are slightly longer than even-money in Week 1 and projected between +1 and -5 in their next three games. That makes them around 13-1 to be undefeated going into Week 6, not far off their 15-1 odds to be the last to lose.

Seattle's a pretty big favorite in Week 1 against the Rams, then go on the road in a toss-up with the Lions. Then it's back home as decent favorites in Week 3 before going back on the road in another coin flip. All that adds up to a 10.5% implied win probability or odds of +850 to be undefeated before kick-off in Week 6.

Best bets

Chargers (+1300)

The Chargers open the season -2.5 at home against the Dolphins but then are projected favorites of -3.5, -1.5 and -5.5 against three teams that many expect to be less valuable than the market suggests. Even at those odds, the Chargers can be calculated to be just longer than +600 (14.3% implied win probability) to be undefeated and headed into their bye. That's a +7.2% difference on their last undefeated odds of +1300.

Steelers (+3500)

Using projected moneylines, the Steelers' five-win rollover adds up to just shy of +2300 (4.2% implied win probability) with their odds suggesting it's just 2.8% likely. That's a marginal edge, but getting 54% more payout than we should be is pretty enticing.

We've been working with the numbers to this point, but it's worth mentioning some on-field stuff with the Steelers, starting with their 8-2 record in games that T.J. Watt played in a year ago. Throw in better offense in Kenny Pickett's second season, and Pittsburgh may come in underrated with an 8.5-win betting market projection. That makes sense when your division features the Bengals, Ravens and Browns, but all of Pittsburgh's divisional road games come after Week 10, making that less of a factor in this market.

By comparison, Green Bay's five-game rollover adds up to +3250. Their payout as the last team undefeated is 23% more than those odds suggest.

The dark horse teams have to hope everyone else finds a loss on their schedule by Week 6. The Bengals have two coin-flip games to start - in Cleveland and at home against Baltimore. Beyond a tricky opener with the Lions, the Chiefs have to visit the Jaguars and Jets.

However, the Eagles are the biggest issue as they look to repeat last year's feat. They'll be favored in their first five games, but that's why they're just +750. Similarly priced last year, the Bills and Chiefs both lost in Week 3 to the Dolphins and Colts, respectively. All it takes is one early slip-up that will barely register on the Richter scale of proven teams, while the Chargers and Steelers have more to prove at the start of the season.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.