NFL Defensive Player of the Year betting: Is there value in a Bosa back-to-back?
The NFL is a constantly evolving league with plenty of turnover among its best offensive players. The 2018 offensive All-Pro teams included the likes of Drew Brees, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Julio Jones, and Zach Ertz. As fantasy football players know, a new generation emerges almost every year.
However, with fewer true superstars, there's less turnover at the top of defenses. The 2018 All-Pro teams featured Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, J.J. Watt, Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter, Myles Garrett, Cameron Jordan, Von Miller, and Fletcher Cox. Five years later, only Watt has retired, while the others are at least impact players on their current teams.
Defensive Player of the Year odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Micah Parsons | +500 |
| Myles Garrett | +800 |
| T.J. Watt | +800 |
| Nick Bosa | +1400 |
| Ahmad Gardner | +2000 |
| Chris Jones | +2500 |
| Haason Reddick | +2500 |
| Maxx Crosby | +2500 |
| Quinnen Williams | +2500 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | +3000 |
| Brian Burns | +3500 |
| Aaron Donald | +4000 |
| Joey Bosa | +4000 |
| Chase Young | +5000 |
| Jaelen Phillips | +5000 |
| Pat Surtain II | +5000 |
| Roquan Smith | +5000 |
| Bradley Chubb | +6000 |
| Derwin James | +6000 |
| Fred Warner | +6000 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | +6000 |
| Matthew Judon | +6000 |
| Rashan Gary | +6000 |
| Von Miller | +6000 |
Micah Parsons, the emergent youngster in a veteran group atop the oddsboard, recorded 13-plus sacks in his first two seasons. He also finished second to Nick Bosa for Defensive Player of the Year last year.
T.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the NFL, but he's not the favorite for an award that rarely skews away from the handful of players atop the oddsboard. Alex Highsmith and Cameron Heyward racked up 25 combined sacks last season, suggesting that Watt isn't just a one-man wrecking crew - the type of characterization that helps win a major award like this one.
Best bets
Nick Bosa (+1400)
We won with Bosa last year at 10-1, and now we're getting 14-1 on our money? Sure! Presumably, the reason for the length of Bosa's odds is his contract holdout. However, both sides are patiently working on a deal. Given the relative simplicity of Bosa's job - "See that quarterback? Get him." - I'm not worried about his ability to be in shape and ready to go by the time Sept. 10 comes. At that point, the defending DPOY's odds should be back in the single digits, especially since repeat winners are common for this award. Donald and J.J. Watt won three times each in respective four-year stretches.
Quinnen Williams (+2500)
Defining the best defensive player is difficult, so it helps if there's a qualitative element at play. Both T.J. Watt and Bosa were the faces of strong defenses on teams with perceived challenges at quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers might help the Jets contend this year, but New York's season hinges on the defense being even better than it was last year. In his fourth season, Quinnen Williams was finally given more of a pass-rushing role and doubled his sack total to 12. He made the All-Pro team for the first time, which can act as the first big step toward DPOY contention. He's also gotten attention via HBO's "Hard Knocks." While that sounds trivial, this award is still a vote. Getting on and staying on the radar is half the battle.
A few 12-14-sack seasons were enough for Donald to show how dominant he was in his prime from the defensive interior. If William can produce another good statistical season in a big market, it could be enough to push him into the top tier of DPOY contenders.
Roquan Smith (+5000)
Ideally, we'd like to back defenders charged with causing chaos behind the line of scrimmage. But Roquan Smith has the All-Pro resume to make sense as a contender, and it wouldn't be the first time a Ravens middle linebacker won Defensive Player of the Year. One reason his odds are this long might be that Smith doesn't put up high sack totals or directly create turnovers. However, the Ravens' defense went from giving up 22.9 points per game before Smith joined midway through the season to 14.3 PPG in their next eight games.
Like Williams, Smith is a big name that can be seen as the symbolic leader of a top-tier defense. His tackle numbers - third in the NFL last year - will at least provide one statistical attention-getter. If the Ravens are good and if he can force a few more turnovers than usual and chip in with a few sacks again, Smith is the one middle linebacker capable of cashing a big payout for Defensive Player of the Year.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.