NFL Coach of the Year betting: Turning mid-level teams into playoff contenders

Few thought much of the Giants before the 2022 season, but they cleared their win total and cashed tickets at +220 to make the playoffs. However, the big winners were those who backed Brian Daboll to win Coach of the Year. It was about more than just an improvement to their record, as Daboll got credit for making Daniel Jones capable of leading the Giants to the postseason.

Doug Pederson did the same for the Jaguars, but Trevor Lawrence had almost too much pedigree. It wasn't nearly as surprising that the former Clemson star had a quick turnaround in him. In both cases, a terrible previous head coach likely helped Daboll's and Pederson's candidacies. Joe Judge and Urban Meyer primed the Giants and Jags to need saving.

It also helps if a head coach gets credit for captaining a ship through turbulent times. Kyle Shanahan finished second in voting last year after the 49ers had to turn to a third quarterback - a little-known "Mr. Irrelevant" out of Iowa State - and never missed a beat with Brock Purdy. Mike Vrabel won the award a year earlier after winning the AFC South after Derrick Henry got hurt.

Unfortunately, someone key will get hurt, but it's nearly impossible to guess who. This type of candidate will have to be pinpointed midseason, and we'll try to guess who'll thrive without their star.

Coach of the Year odds

The name atop the board here makes little sense, as Dan Campbell leads the favorites to win the NFC North. Meanwhile, Sean Payton's the second choice on the premise he can turn around something that might not be salvageable. The good news is, with vulnerable favorites, there should be an opportunity down the oddsboard to find a good price on a candidate that makes more sense.

Best bets

Matt LaFleur (+1200)

We don't have to go far down for a reasonable candidate. LaFleur's case is somewhat unusual, but so is watching a future Hall of Fame quarterback leave while having a ready-incubated replacement. He's not taking over for anyone, but if he can get enough out of Jordan Love and a fleet of young receivers, then LaFleur should get the credit for the Packers' success. Like the Giants last year, the Packers are rated as a below-average team, and simply making the playoffs will be considered something of a coup.

So, how can Green Bay pull that off? For starters, there's nothing wrong with having NFL players in their early 20s if they can play. An uptick in team speed starts with Christian Watson, who became an attractive target for Aaron Rodgers, while Jayden Reed might be a dangerous rookie out of the slot. Sometimes, deploying a variety of options can keep NFL defenses off-balance, and Love showed well in the preseason. While that guarantees nothing, you rather your new quarterback succeed in the tuneup than struggle. Love, as something of a blank canvas for LaFleur's tutelage, could very well improve on Rodgers' pedestrian 2022 season of 3695 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

With that said, does he need to? Green Bay got almost 1900 yards rushing out of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, and its defense returns an important playmaker in Rashan Gary. Lost in the hand-wringing about Love replacing Rodgers is that the Packers have as much room to improve on defense. If they're able to get better on both sides of the ball, they'll contend in the NFC North, and LaFleur will get a sizeable amount of recognition for it.

Mike Tomlin (+2000)

The common thread amongst most Coach of the Year candidates is a young quarterback, one who might be lacking the fangs and claws to turn from the star of a PG-rated movie into a rated-R hero. Enter Kenny Pickett in his second season and Tomlin - a well-respected head coach who's never won this award - with a team that's rated last in the AFC North.

It's a small sample size, but just two preseason incompletions amongst a handful of impressive throws has Steelers fans excited about the 2022 first-round pick in his second season. It won't take much for Pickett and some quality outside targets in George Pickens and Diontae Johnson to make the Steelers' offense more explosive.

Like the Packers, the room to improve on offense - having managed just 4.9 yards per play - is matched by the return of a defensive star to full health. With T.J. Watt hopefully back in the fold for a full season, the Steelers should improve on their middle-of-the-pack opponent yards per game and points allowed per game metrics from last season.

Contending in a loaded AFC North will be tough, but the Steelers have the schedule for a hot start. Being in the mix late will be all the more impressive to voters who'll realize Tomlin should have one of these awards at some point.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.