NFL season-long player prop best bets: Lawrence, Rodgers set for huge years

With 10 days until the NFL opener, there's still plenty of time to make predictions and bet season-long futures based on those bold or safe predictions.

There are countless player props to bet on, including over/under for players' passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, and many more.

After scouring through them all, I identified my best player prop bets of the season. Let's look at some worthy investments that'll pay off by the end of the 2023 campaign.

Best bets

Trevor Lawrence over 4000.5 passing yards (-140)

Lawrence took a massive jump from Year 1 to Year 2. The former No. 1 overall pick's stock is only rising as he emerges just outside the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.

He had a disastrous rookie campaign on an Urban Meyer-coached Jaguars team. He threw for 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions while completing less than 60% of his passes.

Last year - his first under Doug Pederson - Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards and completed 66% of his throws. He also tossed 25 touchdowns to only eight interceptions.

Lawrence improved as a decision-maker while putting up impressive stat lines. He threw for less than 200 yards in just five of his 19 starts, including playoffs. It's surprising oddsmakers are expecting a slight regression from Lawrence.

The former Clemson superstar is just scratching the surface. There's a reason he was hailed as a generational player prior to the 2021 NFL Draft.

Carson Wentz took a massive step forward in Pederson's offense in the coach's second year in Philadelphia. Wentz materialized as an MVP candidate before injuring his knee late in that season.

In Year 2 with Pederson, I expect another leap from Lawrence. His 4,113 passing yards last season ranked ninth among quarterbacks. Lawrence has the arm strength and necessary weapons to rank near the top of the league in passing yards. He won't just surpass 4,000 passing yards - he's going to crush it.

Miles Sanders over 925.5 rushing yards (-105)

Sanders recorded 1,269 rushing yards with the Eagles last season, the fifth-most in the NFL, before joining the Panthers in March.

Sanders proved he's one of the best running backs in the league. But as is often the case with good running backs, regression is inevitable and often swift. While Sanders probably won't rush for over 1,200 yards this season, a line of 925.5 is disrespectful.

Sanders is entering his fifth season, and while he isn't rushing behind the Eagles' incredible offensive line anymore, the Panthers have a solid unit up front. Carolina has the 16th-ranked offensive line, per PFF.

The Panthers won't want to put too much pressure on first-year quarterback Bryce Young, which means they'll rely on the run game.

Young is also mobile, which means Carolina can get creative with its play-calling and implement read options. Philadelphia did that often with Jalen Hurts and Sanders. When the defense has to worry about two rushers in the backfield, it helps both of them.

The only obstacle Sanders could face in his quest for another 1,000-yard season is health concerns. Last year was the first since his rookie season that Sanders played every game.

Miniscule injuries have kept him sidelined in the past, and as running backs continue to take beatings, those injuries usually pile up. Sanders suffered a groin injury in training camp but is expected to be available for Week 1.

As long as he's healthy, Sanders should be in store for another 1,000-yard season.

Aaron Rodgers over 28.5 passing touchdowns (-105)

While the preseason buzz surrounding the Jets has been exhausting, and that is solely due to Rodgers' presence, many are questioning whether he's still a top quarterback in the league after a poor 2022 season.

Let me be the first to assure the skeptics Rodgers still belongs in the top tier of quarterbacks despite his advanced age of 39. It's important to look at Rodgers' 2022 season with the necessary context. After public disputes and reconciliations between Rodgers and the Packers, the 18-year run between the two was coming to an unavoidable conclusion.

That fraying relationship carried over to the field. Rodgers also dealt with inexperienced receivers, which was one of his issues with management.

Rodgers' trade to the Jets was a fresh start and a rejuvenation he desperately needed in the final years of his playing career. Rodgers is just a couple of years removed from back-to-back MVP seasons, where he tossed 48 and 37 touchdowns, respectively.

A refreshed, motivated, and potentially vengeful Rodgers is scary for the rest of the league. The Jets' offense is filled with lethal weapons. While the offensive line is a concern, it won't inhibit the four-time MVP from accumulating absurd numbers.

Even in a down year last season, Rodgers threw 26 touchdowns. The Jets' offense will go as far as Rodgers takes it, and I fully expect him to throw at least 30 touchdowns.

Allen Lazard over 625.5 receiving yards (-110)

After a rough practice for the Jets' receivers, "Hard Knocks" cameras captured Randall Cobb - a longtime Rodgers confidant - telling the group that if Rodgers doesn't trust you, he won't throw you the ball.

Luckily for Lazard, he earned Rodgers' trust in Green Bay last year. The Jets knew there were certain players they needed to acquire in free agency to attract Rodgers to New York. Lazard was one of them.

Lazard had 60 receptions for 788 yards in 2022. He was targeted 100 times. Lazard was Rodgers' primary option, even though he's not good enough to be a No. 1 receiver.

Garrett Wilson is, though, and he'll command so much of the defense's attention that it'll free up Lazard. Rodgers and Lazard created a rapport that'll carry over to this season.

Dak Prescott under 4000.5 passing yards (-125)

Prescott has thrown for over 4,000 passing yards twice in his seven-year career. He also threw 15 interceptions last season, the most in the NFL.

The Cowboys learned that their offense is at its best when the ball is out of Prescott's hands. The offense was most effective when it relied on the run game duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Elliott is no longer in Dallas, but Pollard remains, and one of the best offensive lines in football is still intact.

In the 10 games Prescott attempted at least 30 passes, he threw multiple interceptions in six of them. Prescott threw zero interceptions in only one of those 10 games.

In order to limit Prescott's interceptions, the Cowboys need to limit his passing attempts. Fewer attempts will lead to fewer passing yards.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.