NFL Week 1 player props: Searching for team tendencies in a new year

If we learned anything from Thursday night's season opener in Kansas City, it was that things like player usage, matchup success, and performance all teeter on a balance beam of luck. David Montgomery got 21 touches to Jahmyr Gibbs' nine, the Chiefs' defense held up pretty well without Chris Jones, and none of Kansas City's receivers were able to catch, except Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

As we start our season of 10 player props to play each Sunday, we're also reminded that without any data points, we're largely guessing on how coaches will use players, and what players will do with that opportunity.

Sam Howell: Over 212.5 passing yards

In Sam Howell's one game last year, he didn't need to do much with his arm in a win over the disinterested Cowboys in January weather. Perhaps that's why this line is as low as it is for a quarterback who had no problem slinging it around for three years at North Carolina. Now that Terry McLaurin is good to go, Howell will have a full complement of targets for an above-average day against a Cardinals secondary that is, outside of Budda Baker, below average.

Miles Sanders: Under 55.5 rushing yards

Sure, the Falcons believe in running the football. But if you look at their offseason transactions, it's clear they want to stop the run, too. Calais Campbell comes from the Ravens (third in opponents yards per rush in 2022) and David Onyemata comes over from the Saints (first in OYPR in 2021) to join Grady Jarrett on the defensive line.

This number would've been easy to clear for Miles Sanders with Philadelphia last year - a great offensive line and big leads to run with - but there's no added value to his opportunity to run for Carolina.

Derrick Henry: Longest rush over 16.5 yards

Derrick Henry is fresh, which is interesting since he had a run over 16.5 yards in six of his first eight games last year (with Ryan Tannehill healthy) but just twice in his final eight. The Saints' run defense slipped to 21st last season in OYPR, so there should be room to get downhill.

Brock Purdy: Under 232.5 passing yards

Brock Purdy was a pleasant surprise last season, but not if you bet the over on his passing yards each game and went 3-5. A road game against the Steelers' defense now has Purdy with the second-highest total of his young career. Even without injury issues cropping back up, and even if George Kittle plays, a big yardage day is a tough task.

Anthony Richardson: Over 45.5 rushing yards

Jalen Hurts carried the ball 165 times last season and 12 times per game in the playoffs. His offensive coordinator, Shane Steichen, is now the Colts' head coach and was involved in drafting Anthony Richardson, who was considered something of a reach at the time of the draft. He knows what he wants Richardson to do in his debut on Sunday, especially if the rookie's first read isn't there, and we do, too.

Baker Mayfield: Over 232.5 passing yards

The Vikings allowed 7.4 yards per pass attempt last season, and while Tom Brady's no longer around, I don't envision the Buccaneers changing their offense. They throw it more than any team in the league. As an underdog, the assumption is that Tampa will either be trailing or in the Vikings' usual game state of wild back-and-forth swings. Both should see Baker Mayfield throw more than 32+ times and be enough to hit the over.

Jordan Love: Longest rush over 8.5 yards

Aaron Rodgers takes the snap in the shotgun and runs a fake read option, handing it off and casually pretending to run the other way. Now imagine that occurrence but with 24-year-old Jordan Love pulling it from the mesh and taking off. In limited preseason action, he ran the ball five times, and two of those were for 11 yards. Look for him to steal a first down with his legs against the Bears to cash this bet.

Cam Akers: Under 64.5 rushing yards

After being a top run defense in 2021, the Seahawks allowed 4.9 yards per carry in 2022. As a result, they jettisoned the whole defensive line, brought back Jarran Reed, and spent big on Dre'Mont Jones. Bobby Wagner is back, too, to get everyone in the right place. Cam Akers had a strong finish to a rough season, but Seattle has its first chance to prove this year's different on defense.

Mike Williams: Over 58.5 receiving yards

Mike Williams is under the radar, probably because it's hard to rely on him to stay healthy. Last year, he missed four games and left three others early. In the other 10 games, Williams averaged 83.8 yards and went over 58.5 yards eight times, including a game in which he tallied 116 yards against the Dolphins.

CeeDee Lamb: Over 70.5 receiving yards

Imagine suggesting that CeeDee Lamb is a dark horse to win Offensive Player of the Year who could lead the league in receiving yards and touchdowns, and not taking the over on his yardage total. Lamb's total of 70.5 resembles last year, but this is a new year and hopefully a new pass-happy era for the Cowboys' offense.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.