MNF best bets: Expect an offensive grind for the Bills and Jets

Each Monday, we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game under one condition: you promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as you can always get lost in another wild Sunday.

Having a team representing New York City play on 9/11 was a scheduling no-brainer for the NFL. Now, after Aaron Rodgers greenlit a trade to the Jets, we have the most interesting divisional game of Week 1 capping the first mega-weekend of the season.

Bills @ Jets (+2, 45.5)

The line has crept toward Buffalo after beginning as a pick'em. The initial excitement about Rodgers has been tempered by some concern about the Jets' ability to protect him with a shaky offensive line that's already got injury concerns at both tackle spots. While Von Miller starts the season on the physically unable to play list, the Bills are still deep at defensive end with Leonard Floyd joining Greg Rousseau, Shaq Lawson, and A.J. Epenesa.

Josh Allen should have his hands full as well, though. In two games against the Jets' defense last season, he completed 55.7% of his throws for 176 yards per game and a total of one touchdown, two interceptions, and eight sacks. New York was second in opponents' yards per pass attempt and had a top-10 run defense in 2022. Its success against Allen wasn't a fluke.

A 45.5-point total is above average in the NFL and captures key numbers of 41, 43, 37, and 44. However, it's likely only that high because of the game's quarterbacks. Given the likelihood that both might have trouble finding time for explosive plays, the under is the look here.

With a 2-point spread and a game we think could be relatively low-scoring, the Jets (+8) provide a good teaser leg to pair with any Week 2 point spread that can be teased across key numbers. In fact, there's one primed for a tease Thursday night since you can bring the Eagles under a field goal against the Vikings.

Pick: Under 45.5 points
Jets +8 / Eagles -1 (6-point teaser at -120)

Garrett Wilson: Over 5.5 receptions (-120)

While Rodgers already has his desired offensive familiarity with Nathaniel Hackett, Randall Cobb, and Allen Lazard joining him in New York, it's Garrett Wilson who's positioned himself for Davante Adams' old role. Adams averaged 7.6 receptions per game in his last four seasons with the Packers. Wilson doesn't need to be Adams yet, but he should see enough targets - particularly on quick throws - that six catches is more than doable.

Gabe Davis: Under 45.5 receiving yards (-110)

Last season was supposed to be a big one for Gabe Davis, but he only had more than 45.5 yards in six of 16 games. More importantly, he had 33 and 31 yards in two meetings with New York. Whether it's lining up across from Sauce Gardner, facing coverage with safety help to his side, or the Bills' desire to work the middle of the field with new addition Dalton Kincaid, Davis won't have more than one decent-sized gain to boost his yardage total over this number.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.