NFL Comeback Player of the Year: Any value on Damar Hamlin as a huge favorite?

The NFL's Comeback Player of the Year is the one award with slightly arbitrary criteria. Everyone's definition of a comeback is a little different.

Sometimes a comeback player is someone who returned from a horrific injury - like Alex Smith in 2020 and Joe Burrow in 2021.

Other times, it's awarded to a player whose career was headed downhill but was resurrected by a great season - like Ryan Tannehill in 2019 and Geno Smith in 2022.

This year's award has unique circumstances encompassing it, which has led to some interesting, and slightly baffling, odds.

Comeback Player of the Year odds

Odds via theScore Bet

Damar Hamlin is a substantial favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. It's almost unheard of to have this big of a favorite for any NFL award.

This award is about narrative as much as it is performance. The oddsmakers seem to think Hamlin's story will carry tremendous weight with the voters.

Hamlin living a normal life in itself is an improbable comeback. The fact he's playing football less than a year removed from suffering cardiac arrest during an NFL game defies all odds.

However, the winner of this award usually produces impressive numbers to earn the honor, which is why the pricing is questionable.

Hamlin isn't guaranteed to make the Bills' final 53-man roster. If he does make the cut, he'll be a backup safety with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer returning to their starting duties.

Hamlin's journey should, and has been, recognized as one of the great stories in NFL history as he is not only healthy, but has inspired change by providing awareness of - and access to - AEDs, the device that helped save Hamlin's life.

However, that doesn't mean it'll be rewarded at the NFL Honors next February if there isn't sufficient on-field production this season.

It's possible voters gift Hamlin the honor despite little on-field impact just because of how remarkable his story is, but it's hard to assume it'll still be top of mind for voters months from now.

Because of how short Hamlin's odds are - and how lengthy everyone else's are - there is no value in placing a bet on him.

Finding someone with a great plot who is also in a position to produce great stats is the recipe for a winning ticket.

The case for quarterbacks

Russell Wilson's story fits the blueprint that Tannehill and Smith outlined. Wilson, however, was never benched like Smith or cut like Tannehill. Wilson is a Super Bowl champion and has been a starting quarterback for over a decade despite declining the last couple of seasons and the array of doubt about his future.

Even if Wilson has a tremendous bounce-back season, it's not as much of a comeback as it is the ebbs and flows of a lengthy career as an NFL quarterback.

Wilson did get knee surgery following last season, but it didn't prevent him from missing any significant time. It'd be head-scratching if Wilson somehow wins.

Tua Tagovailoa also suffered a scary moment on the field last season. He dealt with concussions throughout the season and missed parts of six games, including the Dolphins' playoff contest.

A quarterback has won the award each of the last five seasons. If any quarterback is primed for a special season and has the comeback narrative attached to him, it's Tagovailoa.

Baker Mayfield could follow a similar path as Geno Smith did. Mayfield, like Smith, has been completely written off but given an opportunity to start. If Mayfield can lead the Bucs to a better record than expected, he'll earn the award and some staying power in the league. However, the Bucs' roster surrounding Mayfield is pitiful, while the Seahawks had a ton of talent around Smith.

Pick: Pass

The case for other positions

With few quarterbacks primed for a true comeback, this is the year the award is handed back to the wide receivers. Calvin Ridley should have a great season with the Jaguars, but the circumstance of his comeback almost disqualifies him from the award.

He was suspended last season for gambling on NFL games. As the NFL cracks down on players betting, would the league really allow Ridley to win this award and be lauded for his comeback? I don't think so.

John Metchie III will catch the attention of voters if his stats qualify. Metchie missed his entire rookie season battling leukemia and recovering from a torn ACL.

However, Metchie is on a bad Texans team and receiving passes from a rookie quarterback, which may make it difficult to rack up the necessary catches and yards.

Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. are the two smartest bets to win this award. No one's seen Beckham Jr. play in a meaningful game since he was catching touchdowns for the Rams in the Super Bowl. He's now paired with quarterback Lamar Jackson on a potentially dangerous Ravens offense. Beckham Jr. is reportedly healthy, and with little depth at wide receiver, he should see a boatload of targets.

Kupp was considered the best receiver in football in 2021 before only playing nine games in 2022 due to a high-ankle sprain. If Kupp can return to his pre-injury production level, he'll be in position to win the award and help revamp a Rams offense with low expectations this season.

Chase Young is an interesting candidate at +7500. Young suffered a season-ending ACL tear midway through the 2021 season, and his recovery was lengthy as he only returned for the final three games of last season.

If Young returns to his explosiveness as a dominant edge rusher, he'll be in the mix. But he'll have to have a recognizable impact visually and in the boxscore. A defensive player has won the award just once since 2001 - Eric Berry in 2015 after battling back from cancer.

Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. +3500, Cooper Kupp +3500

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.