NFC division betting: Finding value in fading the favorite

The NFC is the conference you want to play in - at least from a branding point of view, as it's often thought of as wide open. That might be insulting to teams not named the Eagles, 49ers, and perhaps Cowboys - the big fish in the conference pool - but, when broken down at the divisional level, there are no free rides, even for those considered a cut above a small pond of four teams.

A bet on a team to win their division isn't about who's the best team or who we think will even win. Since odds are just another way of expressing implied win probability, for context, we'll translate those odds into how likely the betting market thinks it is that each team wins their division. Like any other bet we make, picking a team as the best bet for their division means that we think it's at least 5% more likely than the translated percentage.

NFC West

Heaven forbid we apply some logic to sports betting, but the 49ers' season win total of 10.5 seems low on the surface. They're one of the three prime contenders in the conference, so you would think an 11-6 record is easily attainable. However, the market has been available to bet all offseason and piles of money have not come in on the over, or they have, and oddsmakers don't care. Let's say San Francisco splits the difference and wins 11 games. The team becomes somewhat vulnerable as the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West.

Brock Purdy stepped in and kept the 49ers' momentum going, winning the final six games of the regular season, but only two of those came against playoff teams. One of those was the Seahawks, who the Niners beat again in the playoffs before edging Dallas for a spot in the NFC Championship. The Cowboys game is the one worth focusing on for 2023.

The 49ers mustered just 312 yards in that contest. It was a stark difference to what Purdy had faced during the season, and 2023's schedule includes road trips to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Philadelphia outside the division, plus visits from the Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens. All seven of those teams will be a challenge akin to that NFC divisional-round game, unlike the Commanders, Raiders, and Cardinals, who all started backup quarterbacks against the 49ers' defense.

The Rams and Cardinals aren't stepping up to steal the division, so their combined 12.9% implied win probability has to go somewhere.

The Seahawks have a revamped defense that should have as many as seven starters that it didn't have last season, while the offense has a far better idea of what it has than it did at this time last year. Seattle has a far better chance of winning the NFC West than its current implied probability suggests, making the team a bet at +200 or better.

Pick: Seahawks (+200)

NFC North

We've been on this train since Aaron Rodgers finally left Green Bay in March, and there's no reason to disembark now. Jordan Love will be an adequate replacement for a quarterback who produced a QBR below 40 last season. Love and the speedy young receivers the Packers have surrounded him with will fit what Matt Lafleur wants to do on offense. With the return of Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, and shutdown corner Jaire Alexander, the defense has impact players at all three levels.

The defending champion Vikings are set to take a potentially large step back, the Bears didn't do enough to augment their roster around the occasional spectacular plays from Justin Fields, and the Lions' price is far too short for a team that was neck-and-neck with last year's Packers.

Pick: Packers (+375)

NFC South

Sure, let's grab the team that was horrendous against the spread last year and then lost the greatest quarterback of all time. That makes sense.

You probably don't like Todd Bowles as a head coach, but the favorite in the NFC South is Dennis Allen, who has a 18-47 career record.

You probably don't like Baker Mayfield, but the team with the most buzz in the NFC South is quarterbacked by Desmond Ridder.

Let's say that a team with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tristan Wirfs, Vita Vea, Devin White, Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett, and a veteran secondary has a 15% chance to repeat as division champions. That makes them a bet at a price miles away from the Bucs' expectations last year.

Pick: Buccaneers (+900)

NFC East

Thanks to quarterback injuries, we never got to see the Cowboys and Eagles match up at full strength. The Eagles were full value for nearly winning the Super Bowl last season, but you could argue their 14-3 record was built on a soft schedule. Luckily for football fans, Philadelphia's schedule gets a little more interesting.

Had the Eagles' slate been slightly tougher last year, the Cowboys' 12-5 record might have been closer to division title-worthy. The Cowboys' season-opening loss to Tampa Bay looks wackier after seeing them crush the Bucs in the playoffs, and a Week 18 loss was meaningless. If Dallas finishes 14-3, while the Eagles go 13-4 this season, we shouldn't be surprised.

Pick: Cowboys (+185)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.