NFL Week 5 best bets: Buy low, sell high

Quarterbacks are coming and going with various levels of injury severity, and that's hard to rely on. Seven of the 32 teams have already seen uncertainty about who's taking snaps. That doesn't even include Joe Burrow, who looks like a different quarterback than we remember. Hopefully, the signal-callers we think are playing will suit up, and we get what we expect from those who play.

Best bets ATS

We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.

However, there are more plays worth making this week.

Moneyline parlay: Falcons / Dolphins (+105)

We'll get creative in building a valuable bet. There's no such thing as a lock in the NFL, but if this bet loses, it won't be because of the Dolphins. We'll use their moneyline to get a plus-money price on the Falcons.

Atlanta's last two games - at the Lions and against the Jaguars in London - have been tough setups for a one-dimensional offense. Back home, the Falcons can return to what they do best against the Texans - dominate the line of scrimmage. Houston's recent success has brought its rating up to the point where there's already some value on the Falcons under a field goal. But it would be nice to rule out a wonky late finish where Atlanta wins but doesn't cover while not having to pay the vig on this bet.

Lions -9.5

Even with veteran Andy Dalton behind center, the Panthers couldn't stop from repeatedly false starting in their last road game in hostile territory at Seattle. Now Bryce Young is back to operating an offense that managed just 232 total yards against the Vikings' defense at home last week. The Lions are rested from a mini-bye and should be ready to pound the Panthers in response to getting upset in Carolina last year - a loss that helped keep them out of the playoffs.

Broncos -1.5

This is less about being thrilled to back the almost 0-4 Broncos and their terrible defense and more about not buying into two semi-effective quarters from Zach Wilson. In the modern NFL, a good offense will beat a good defense more often than not. However, we're frequently shown examples of bad defenses that still aren't bad enough to turn the NFL's cadre of awful quarterbacks into road warriors. Wilson plays back to his median state, which is to say - not good.

Bengals -3

Imagine a universe where, on the first week of October, the market is clamoring to bet on the Cardinals at a short price over the Bengals, a Super Bowl contender. Burrow doesn't look good, but he claimed he's feeling better after last week's loss to the Titans. With this line bet down to a field goal, Cincinnati is being rated as a below-average team. Arizona has been better than thought, but it still has just one win and is being asked to beat a desperate Bengals squad or come close to it.

49ers -3.5

If you could sign up for an extended preseason, matchups with the Steelers' offense, the Rams' defense, and whatever the Giants and Cardinals are trying to do would be close to an ideal situation. The 49ers have handled those teams with relative ease, and even though this is a step up in weight class, there's also reason to believe that San Francisco hasn't touched the second chapter of Kyle Shanahan's playbook.

The Cowboys are a team San Francisco is competing with for the NFC's top seed, so the Niners will unleash the good stuff to build a lead and put it on Dak Prescott to keep up. And that's when Nick Bosa and Co. will turn the Cowboys over and continue Dallas' red-zone efficiency struggles (30th in the NFL).

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Jaguars (+210)

We discussed the Jaguars' chances at length as part of the round-robin underdog moneyline parlay, and we don't need to rehash it here. However, if you don't think the travel advantage the Jags have matters, they certainly don't feel that way.

Best 6-point teaser / Moneyline parlay

Colts +8.5 / Patriots +7 (-120)

Bettors' interest in the Titans vacillates every week. This week, Tennessee has been bet up to -2.5, meaning the Colts can be teased up to +8.5 - the most valuable teaser leg.

It's a similar story for the Patriots, as this line has flipped enough to get a full touchdown on a teaser. You can find Mac Jones in the bargain bin at your local thrift store. However, we'll back the Patriots to at least play a tight game against the Saints, who were sneaky stinky in getting dominated at home by the mediocre Buccaneers.

At least the Pats' losses have come against the Cowboys, Eagles, and Dolphins. New England's defense is running so low on bodies that it brought back J.C. Jackson into the fold. This is the type of ugly game in which the Patriots come out on top thanks to special teams, defense, and one more big play on offense than they give up.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.