NFL Week 7 best bets: Home/road splits guide the way

Our best bets against the spread have been as advertised, but we're hoping to hit a couple more upsets going forward, and teasers should always be more successful through the middle of the season, when game results tend to finish closer to the point spread.

Best bets ATS

We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.

However, there are more plays worth making this week.

Buccaneers -2.5

Desmond Ridder had over 300 yards last week, and the Falcons' backers were bummed out about the performance because of the crucial turnovers that cost Atlanta the game. Bettors may like the production enough to keep this line from going to -3, but they have more faith than I do that Ridder's road statistics will turn around this week. His yardage per attempt is 1.7 yards lower on the road than it is at home, and he completes almost 10% fewer passes.

The Buccaneers were closer to the Lions than the scoreboard suggests, as a batted Baker Mayfield pass prevented a potential long touchdown for Mike Evans, and Jameson Williams held on to a juggled long touchdown on a third-and-10. Had those two high-leverage plays gone differently, the Bucs might not be so mad about their play and might not be so focused on a visit from Ridder this week.

Colts +3

The Browns' win probability shouldn't have been adjusted down drastically when P.J. Walker replaced Deshaun Watson before the 49ers game. It also shouldn't be flipped back so aggressively with the likelihood Watson will play versus the Colts.

Indianapolis is likely being downgraded because Gardner Minshew will be facing the heavily lauded Cleveland defense, which has had a good run of matchups on that side of the ball, including an injured Joe Burrow, the Steelers, the Titans, and Brock Purdy dealing with a driving wind. Getting the full field goal is a good bet on the Colts.

Ravens -2.5 (-120)

Jared Goff goes from summer and the indoors to dealing with the Ravens' defense in windy conditions. The Lions will have a hard time relying on the run game without David Montgomery. Detroit ran 22 times for just 40 yards last week in Tampa Bay (another reason to like the Bucs above).

The Lions' ATS record under Dan Campbell is getting more publicity, and their market rating is creeping up, so it may look appetizing to buy Detroit as an underdog. However, the available -2.5 at -120 is a valuable bet on Baltimore since - based on previous closing point spreads - this line should be -3.5 without public perception skewing it lower.

Eagles -2.5

The Eagles' injury report on offense isn't ideal, but the Dolphins' defense is 27th in DVOA. Philadelphia might not need to be at full strength to move the ball well. What is make-or-break in this game is the Eagles' ability to pressure Tua Tagovailoa and slow down Miami's offense.

The Eagles' red zone defense and pressure rate has room to improve, but they should have a healthy front seven at The Linc on Sunday night. We saw how Miami's offense was affected when the team went from blowing out inferior opponents to a road game against a contender in Buffalo. Tagovailoa was sacked four times and turned it over twice.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Chargers (+200)

In five games between Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs and Justin Herbert's Chargers, the coin has landed in favor of Kansas City four times. With two overtime games and two won by a field goal, these matchups are always a coin flip, as discussed in our round-robin moneyline parlay. It would be peak Chargers for L.A. to go on the road and beat K.C. six days after coughing up a winnable Monday Night Football home game against Dallas.

Best 6-point teaser

Giants (+8.5) / Seahawks (-1.5)

Thankfully, this probably doesn't require a lot of explanation since two-team, six-point teasers are now commonly priced at -130, and you need to be as certain as ever that your teaser legs have value. The Giants have been blown out, but those games came against the Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks and Dolphins - all playoff-calibre teams. Even Washington's biggest win of the season - by eight last week in Atlanta - came when the team gave up more than 200 yards than it had on offense.

As for Seattle, if we're using the team in survivor contests this week, it's safe to say we like them to win, and losing this would require quite the turnaround from Arizona's recent penchant for losing by two touchdowns.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.