NFL Week 7 player props: Big names and breakout performances

Baker Mayfield completes his 19th pass of the game, and it's first-and-10 at the Lions' 29-yard line with plenty of time on the clock. Four incomplete passes later, Mayfield over 20.5 pass completions dies a grim death and we're left with another 5-5 week as we sit three games below .500 through two-thirds of the season in our alternative ways to play Sunday's games.

Bijan Robinson: Under 54.5 rushing yards

I'm not expecting much from the Falcons' offense. Expectations were high for the Atlanta running game this season, but at 4.0 yards per carry, the offensive line hasn't opened holes with ease. Only the Eagles have been able to do anything on the ground against the Buccaneers' run defense, so the Falcons will be better served by trying to throw the ball to Bijan Robinson to give him a chance in the open field.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Over 43.5 rushing yards

We'll be buyers at what we hope is the low point in the market for the Patriots' offense. Rather than backing Mac Jones, though, let's assume that Rhamondre Stevenson can do some work against a Bills run defense that's giving up the second-most yards per carry and is without hole-clogger DaQuan Jones in the middle of the defensive line.

Gardner Minshew: Over 198.5 passing yards

There are two ways this wins from a game-script perspective. The Colts could have early success against the Browns' defense, whose metrics might be inflated due to the opponents and last week's weather in Cleveland. It's also possible that, like last week, Indianapolis finds itself trailing and Gardner Minshew gets over a total that's 30 yards short of a road game in Jacksonville.

Jared Goff: Under 35.5 longest pass completion

Here are Jared Goff's yardage totals in outdoor games after October 1st the last two seasons and before last week's big game in Tampa Bay:

It took a late 51-yard touchdown on fourth down against the Jets and 27 second-half pass attempts while trailing by three scores in Carolina to get over this total twice. With high winds expected in Baltimore, the Ravens' defense will keep everything in front of them as Goff struggles to complete anything deep down the field.

Michael Mayer: Over 2.5 receptions

Brian Hoyer came in for Jimmy Garoppolo in the second half last week and half his six completions went to tight ends. Michael Mayer saw his snap share go from under 50% in the first three weeks to 81% last week and a season-high six targets. The market hasn't caught up to how much the Raiders want to get the ball to the former Notre Dame tight end, who is playing a stone's throw from South Bend this week.

Patrick Mahomes: Under 36.5 longest pass completion

The Chiefs' long completions this season have come via medium-length passes turned into long gains. Their less-explosive offense won't be able to beat the Chargers deep, as Los Angeles has done a solid job of containing Patrick Mahomes on a per-pass basis and has the lowest Y/A of any team to face him at least four times.

Kenneth Walker: Over 79.5 rushing yards

With a prime candidate for a ladder - betting someone to hit higher alternative yardage marks - the Seahawks should emulate everyone's success running the ball on the Cardinals this season. Arizona couldn't do anything to stop the Rams in the second half on the ground last week, and though Kenneth Walker hasn't had a 100-yard rushing game this season, he had 97 on 18 carries against the Panthers in the most comparable game to this matchup.

George Pickens: Over 50.5 receiving yards

Any decent offensive coordinator should have come out of the Steelers' win over the Ravens and through the bye week with the idea that we can trust George Pickens with contested catches. Add in Diontae Johnson's return, which will draw some attention to the other side of the field, and Pickens - over this total in three of his last four games - should be able to do work against the Rams' secondary.

Aaron Jones: Over 2.5 receptions

We'll need Aaron Jones to play in this game, and we've all been fooled before regarding his availability. However, if Jones is cleared, this number is too low. The Packers' offensive line is still not good, and Jordan Love needs all the help he can get. Jones averaged 3.5 receptions per game in this offense last year with Aaron Rodgers, whose confidence in going downfield was much higher.

Dallas Goedert: Over 39.5 receiving yards

Under the lights and in a big game, Jalen Hurts likes to go to his reliable tight end, who will be critical in extending long drives to keep the Dolphins' offense off the field. Miami allows 5.6 receptions and over 50 yards per game to opposing tight ends, even though the only elite tight end the team has faced is Darren Waller (eight receptions, 86 yards).

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.