NFL Week 10 player props: Star tailbacks in Sunday's spotlight
We had a vast range of misses with our prop bets last week. There was the miraculous when Christian Watson's leaping catch pushed Jordan Love over his yardage total. There was the sad when Jaren Hall suffered a concussion on a first-quarter rush that left him five yards short of his prop. And there was even the bizarre, as Jonathan Taylor stayed under his rushing yards despite a 20-3 Colts lead at halftime in Carolina. We're left looking to bounce back from a 3-7 Sunday but still confident in the process.
Keaton Mitchell: Over 20.5 rushing yards
After looking like Michael Cera's character in "Superbad" running from police officer Seth Rogen last Sunday, we've heard all week about how Mitchell will get more opportunity in the Ravens' offense. He may not be the "fastest kid alive," but Mitchell provides explosiveness that Justice Hill and Gus Edwards don't have. Look for him to get at least five carries. The Browns' defense is good, but prior to last week's glorified exhibition with the Cardinals, Cleveland gave up runs of 15-plus yards to eight different tailbacks in its previous four games.
Diontae Johnson: Over 63.5 receiving yards
Here are the receiving markets and results for Johnson since his return from injury three games ago:
| GAME | REC TOTAL | RECS | REC YDS TOTAL | REC YDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @LAR | 4.5 | 5 | 45.5 | 79 |
| JAX | 4.5 | 8 | 50.5 | 85 |
| TEN | 5.5 | 7 | 60.5 | 90 |
Six available bets. Six overs.
With Jaire Alexander doubtful to go in the Packers' secondary, there should be room to run on a clear, sunny day in Pittsburgh.
Jordan Love: Under 214.5 passing yards
Even on good weather days, Love's produced ugly passing yard totals on the road. The Steelers' secondary can be leaky, but Love hasn't shown much ability to take advantage of that, throwing for 180, 182, 151, and 245 yards in each of four road contests this season. That big game for Love was helped by a 51-yard dump-off to Aaron Jones and a 37-yarder to rookie tight end Luke Musgrave. Pittsburgh's offense isn't likely to put Green Bay in a throw-only game state, so we'll bet Love struggles with his usual usage.
Alvin Kamara: Under 87.5 rushing + receiving yards
It appears teams have noticed the Saints' offense is almost exclusively Kamara, as he's had only four catches in his last two games. Now he faces the Vikings' defense, who give up the third-fewest yards per reception to opposing tailbacks and are fifth against the run. Look for Brian Flores to take away what had been easy offense for Derek Carr and force someone else to beat Minnesota.
Chase Young: Over 0.5 sacks (+100)
A new weapon on the opponent's defensive line might normally get special attention, but trying to double Young means Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, and Arik Armstead get winnable matchups. With over a week to get adjusted at a position that doesn't take much adaptation, look for Young (five sacks in six games) to get to Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars' offensive line has struggled against the top pass-rushing teams in the league.
Will Levis: Over 221.5 passing yards
Why is this total so low? It's actually a 21-yard increase from Levis' total at Pittsburgh. The Titans rookie won't shy away from throwing it deep - going over this number in both starts. Also, the Buccaneers' secondary just gave up 470 yards to C.J. Stroud, and the club ranks 31st in opponent yards per attempt. The market hasn't caught up to Tennessee's willingness to let Levis rip it.
Bijan Robinson: Over 80.5 rushing + receiving yards
Arthur Smith will tell you how dumb your suggestions are. The coach will say that Desmond Ridder isn't the problem and then bench the quarterback. Now, after saying Robinson's a decoy, expect Smith to realize there's a reason the Falcons burned the eighth overall pick on a stellar offensive piece. They'll throw it to Robinson, and he'll run it. And - as a bonus bet - he'll score (+120).
Jahmyr Gibbs: Over 58.5 rushing + receiving yards
The touchdowns may dry up for Gibbs since David Montgomery's back. But Gibbs showed brilliance in Montgomery's absence, recording 315 yards on 51 touches. Gibbs should get the ball at least 15 times on the fast track at SoFi Stadium, and four yards per touch should be no problem in clearing the second-lowest scrimmage yards total he's had all season.
Brian Robinson: Under 47.5 rushing yards
After getting gashed by the Ravens last week, look for the Seahawks to tighten up a run defense that's been one of the best in the NFL this campaign. And Robinson hasn't been particularly explosive this year, with runs of 10-plus yards in just four of nine games. To beat this number, he'll need an amount of carries the Commanders' offense isn't likely to give him, especially if they're trailing late.
Breece Hall: Over 18.5 receiving yards
Hall should have compiled 28 receiving yards Monday night, but a needless block in the back penalty nixed a big catch and run. Hall had other opportunities to replicate his success in the passing game, but Zach Wilson's panic-spiked screen passes prevented that. More Hall should be in the game plan to take some starch out of Maxx Crosby and the Raiders' pass rush. Hopefully, Garrett Wilson can keep his hands to himself Sunday night.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.