NFL Thanksgiving best bets: Turkey day feasts with Black Friday leftovers
If you're a football fan of any age, you'll likely have vivid memories of the NFL on Thanksgiving that include the Lions failing and the Cowboys disappointing.
While that could be the case this year, you might be shocked by the point spreads below. You might be even more surprised that the NFL is no longer stopping at a turkey triple-header, spilling the schedule onto Black Friday.
Packers @ Lions (-7.5, 47)
The Lions are in the same situation as last Sunday against the Bears - favorites by just over a touchdown. On the surface, you can look at their narrow victory over Chicago as a reason not to like them this week. However, the turnovers - a 4-1 advantage for the Bears - show that a lot had to go wrong for the Lions to be trailing. Plus, Chicago unleashed Justin Fields' legs, which may have caught Detroit by surprise.
In Green Bay, the Packers beat the Chargers, but key drops - twice from sure-handed Keenan Allen staring into the sun - prevented L.A. from winning. The Packers don't have anything that will surprise Detroit, as we saw in the first meeting when the Lions manhandled Green Bay.
Pick: Lions (-7.5)
*Best 6-point teaser*: Lions -1.5 / Buccaneers +8.5 (-130)
David Montgomery: Over 66.5 rushing yards
Except for the game in which he got hurt in Tampa Bay, David Montgomery has gone over 66 yards in every contest he's played this season. Given that we're expecting another comfortable Lions win, he should get ample opportunity in the second half to rack up yardage against a run defense ranked in the bottom third of the NFL.
Commanders @ Cowboys (-11, 48.5)
If they hadn't lost to the Giants, the Commanders would have been under 10-point underdogs in Dallas. However, Washington's nine sacks of Tommy DeVito were negated by their six turnovers.
If the Commanders can keep the turnovers to a minimum - as the team did in Seattle and twice against the Eagles - Sam Howell should be able to hang around in a game the Cowboys haven't covered since 2018 and just once since 2010.
Pick: Commanders (+11)
Brian Robinson: Over 62.5 rush + receiving yards
Brian Robinson's become a weapon in the short passing game. Robinson had 18 targets in the first nine contests, followed by 15 in his last two. With Antonio Gibson expected to miss a second game in a row, Robinson should be heavily involved in the passing game once again, especially with the Commanders likely to be trailing.
49ers @ Seahawks (+7, 43.5)
Brock Purdy completed his first 11 passes as part of Kyle Shanahan's offensive script in last year's game in Seattle. But thanks to a crucial Travis Homer fumble, and the 49ers gaining 170 yards on the ground against a porous Seahawks run defense, San Francisco came away with an eight-point win.
Aside from the Ravens' debacle in Week 9, Seattle's run defense has shown considerable improvement after its front seven was revamped in the offseason. Meanwhile, Purdy's worst games have come in places with a discernible home-field advantage (Cleveland, Minnesota).
The 49ers' estimated market rating hit a peak going into last week's game, and they covered a sizeable spread over the Buccaneers. That rating has held. As a result, a point spread that should be around -5 has flirted with a converted touchdown this week, meaning there's some value on the home underdog.
Pick: Seahawks (+7)
George Kittle: Longest reception over 22.5 yards
Let's make this bet before the "George Kittle owns the Seahawks" narratives start flowing. Kittle's usage has gone from 25 targets in San Francisco's first six games to 25 receptions on 31 targets in its last four.
Kittle has had a reception of longer than 22 yards in five of his last six meetings with Seattle and a long reception in four straight this season. The Niners are looking to get him open down the field and are connecting when he's there.
Dolphins @ Jets (+10, 41)
The Tim Boyle era isn't likely to be a long one. I won't list the stats from previous Boyle starts because this is a G-rated production, but the market doesn't think he's an improvement over Wilson, as the line has gone up since the switch was announced.
The Raiders might have had a chance to beat the Dolphins last week, but they couldn't score once they neared the red zone despite numerous Miami turnovers setting them up. Maybe there are a few field goals in the Jets' future and a random touchdown to keep them close, but Miami's good enough to keep them frustrated on offense.
The Dolphins may not shake the turnover bug on the road against a Jets defense capable of limiting the big play and disrupting their rhythm. Only three teams allow fewer yards per pass attempt. If New York can hold Miami to 24 points, one more point than the most the Jets have allowed at home this season, we won't have to worry about the Jets contributing 17 to cover a large spread.
Pick: Under 41
Tim Boyle: Under 162.5 passing yards
Whether it's a quick hook or an injury, there are many ways that Boyle won't surpass a seemingly low passing yard total. If Boyle was good, he'd have replaced Wilson by now.
Since adding Jalen Ramsey into the fold, Miami's allowed only 5.8 yards per attempt over three games. If Boyle can match the efficiency of Aidan O'Connell, Patrick Mahomes and Mac Jones in those contests, he'll need to throw it 28 times to go over. That's unlikely for someone who averages 5.1 YPA for his career.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.