Week 5 round-robin underdog parlay: Looking for more minor upsets

The biggest flaw in picking three-to-five upsets in the NFL each week comes during the occasional week when there just aren't any. A Buccaneers-Texans-Titans parlay would net just +120 on a five-team round-robin parlay. That's better than nothing, but the whole point of using just over a unit to score a big win is catching it on the right week when a fair amount of unforeseen wildness occurs. Week 4 wasn't that.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - which we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Jaguars (+210) over Bills

Sometimes, you just need to see one go in the basket. After back-to-back rough performances at home, the Jaguars took to their home-away-from-home for an easy win in London. For the first time, the Jags are staying overseas in back-to-back weeks, creating an advantage over their opponent crossing the Atlantic.

This line has long been projected to be Bills -3.5, but it's up to -5.5 because of Buffalo's impressive win over the Dolphins. The Bills lost Tre'Davious White for the season and are still waiting on the return of Von Miller. Meanwhile, the Jaguars get their left tackle back. If Cam Robinson were returning from injury, we'd be dubious about his effect, but he's coming off a suspension, so health isn't an issue. The added protection for Trevor Lawrence should buy him time to take advantage of a thinning Bills secondary. If the line should be lower, the moneyline should be shorter, meaning there's value for a Jags upset.

Steelers (+175) over Ravens

We seldom lean on trends, but when we do, they should be pertinent to the situation and coaches involved. The underdog is 22-5-3 when John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin face each other in the regular season and 17-1-3 when the line is -3 or higher. In general, Tomlin is 17-5-3 as a home underdog. While the Steelers' rating has fluctuated wildly all season, I have this game lined closer to a pick'em, so we're getting a +175 price on something that should be shorter than +150.

Colts (+110) over Titans

A Wednesday injury report showing that some Colts missed practice sent Indy from a short favorite to a small 'dog. Perfect. Indianapolis just played an overtime game, so resting some veterans was probably always in the cards.

The Titans have excelled at home against teams with obvious flaws - the Chargers' defense and Joe Burrow's calf. In their road games - at New Orleans and at Cleveland - the Titans' offense managed 4.8 and 2.1 yards per play, respectively.

The Colts' took a while to get going after a "jump and hug" win at Baltimore, but it was impressive how they stayed the course to force overtime against the Rams. Shane Steichen's plan for Anthony Richardson resembles early-stage Jalen Hurts when the Eagles made the playoffs two years ago, with Steichen calling plays. He's made them efficient in high-leverage situations, something the Titans have struggled with.

Rams (+180) over Eagles

With a full practice on Wednesday, it seems like Cooper Kupp is ready to return, which means the Rams' rating should probably go back to where it was last season before injuries struck him and Matthew Stafford (who also practiced in full). If they're back to being an above-average team, the line and moneyline odds are too short for a team that can take advantage of an Eagles secondary that's been shaky late in games against Sam Howell, Kirk Cousins, and Mac Jones.

Vikings (+190) over Chiefs

Nobody likes the Vikings anymore, and it's hard to argue why you would - until you realize the unusual position they're in this week from a betting perspective. Minnesota hasn't been an underdog of over a field goal since its win in Buffalo in Week 10 last year, and it's never been a home 'dog of 3-plus since Cousins arrived. The Vikings are a frequent fade when laying points, but they have the offense to stay close with the Chiefs, who showed on Sunday night that they're just happy with securing the win late. If Kansas City lets the Vikings linger, they could make a play late for the upset.

How the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.