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NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game (Oct. 10-16)

Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The NHL season is back, and with it come our moneyline projections for every game this week as we search for valuable hockey bets.

Since it's the first week of the season, there are two issues with our projections:

  1. Many sportsbooks have already posted odds for the games from Tuesday's opening game to the first big Saturday slate of the season. So there's no guessing. We already know what the odds are.
  2. We don't have any metrics from on-ice play this season to parse through to build our ratings.

Last week, we broke down how to take the regular season point total market, turn that into market ratings for each team, and subsequently translate those into moneylines for each matchup. It shouldn't come as a surprise that using our formula has resulted in prices very close to what is currently available.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we take advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine my fair price on each game and the moneyline I'd need to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

  • True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
  • True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
  • True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

As the season goes on, I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

Normally, when the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
Oct. 10 NSH@TBL +136/-136 NSH +161/TB -131
CHI@PIT +208/-208 CHI +251/PIT -198
SEA@VGK +139/-139 SEA +165/VGK -134
Oct. 11 MTL@TOR +256/-256 MTL +314/TOR -243
OTT@CAR +161/-161 OTT +192/CAR -155
CHI@BOS +221/-221 CHI +269/BOS -211
COL@LAK -101/+101 COL +109/LAK +112
EDM@VAN -124/+152 EDM -129/VAN +129
WPG@CGY +120/-120 WPG +142/CGY -116
Oct. 12 NYR@BUF -109/+109 NYR +101/BUF +121
PHI@CBJ +108/-108 PHI +119/CBJ +102
DET@NJD +184/-184 DET +220/NJD -176
FLA@MIN +108/-108 FLA +119/MIN +102
SEA@NSH -101/+101 SEA +109/NSH +112
STL@DAL +182/-182 STL +217/DAL -174
VGS@SJS -200/+200 VGS -191/SJS +241
Oct. 13 ARI@NJD +200/-200 ARZ +241/NJD -191
PIT@WSH -117/+117 PIT -112/WSH +137
Oct. 14 PHI@OTT +161/-161 PHI +192/OTT -155
FLA@WPG -103/+103 FLA +107/WPG +114
CGY@PIT -101/+101 CGY +109/PIT +112
CHI@MTL +115/-115 CHI +136/MTL -111
MIN@TOR +141/-141 MIN +166/TOR -135
NSH@BOS +151/-151 NSH +179/BOS -145
NYR@CBJ -167/+167 NYR -160/CBJ +199
TBL@DET -110/+110 TBL +100/DET +122
BUF@NYI +113/-113 BUF +133/NYI -108
SEA@STL -107/+107 SEA +103/STL +118
ANA@VGS +259/-259 ANA +319/VGS -247
COL@SJS -221/+221 COL -211/SJS +269
VAN@EDM +165/-165 VAN +197/EDM -158
CAR@LAK -103/+103 CAR +107/LAK +114
Oct. 15 TBL@OTT +112/-112 TBL +132/OTT -108
CAR@ANA -221/+221 CAR -211/ANA +269
Oct. 16 DET@CBJ -115/+115 DET -111/CBJ +136
CHI@TOR +263/-263 CHI +324/TOR -250
ARI@NYR +203/-203 ARI +244/NYR -194
CGY@WSH -109/+109 CGY +101/WSH +121
FLA@NJD +136/-136 FLA +161/NJD -131

Depending on when you look at the lines, you might be hard-pressed to find a valuable bet based on market inequity - a team that is rated differently in moneylines than it was in regular season point totals.

So, how do we make a bet? Take it with a grain of salt, applying what you know of each team's offseason, but here's a list of squads rated significantly higher or lower than they were when last season ended.

RATED HIGHER RATED LOWER
Avalanche Hurricanes
Rangers Devils
Sabres Bruins
Canucks Panthers
Red Wings Lightning
Blues Flames
Capitals
Flyers
Sharks

If you think a team on the left didn't have an offseason worthy of a rating boost, they may be worth fading. If you like what a team on the right did this summer, they may be worth an early-season bet.

As always, game odds off of power ratings are a starting point. For example, while every team gets the same schedule consideration, sometimes teams start their backup goaltender in the front end of the back-to-back.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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