Week 6 round-robin underdog parlay: Fading the favorite among familiar foes

For a moment, it looked like we might have a McDuck situation on our hands. We clinched a profit on our weekly guilty pleasure parlay with the Steelers' comeback win, along with Colts and Jaguars victories. Then it was up to the Vikings and Rams, who were each neck-and-neck with a defending conference champion.

The lesson might be: Don't mess with the apex of the league. The Cowboys, Bills, Jaguars, and Commanders have suffered the biggest upsets in the NFL so far this season. If Deshaun Watson was healthy, we might take a shot against the 49ers this week, but not with PJ Walker at the helm.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - which we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Titans (+170) over Ravens

It's possible that the Ravens - who went straight to London on Sunday night - have the travel thing figured out. The Jaguars certainly looked far more sorted than the Bills did last week. However, the Titans are back in their preferred role as the underdog.

The trend of all trends - underdogs in Ravens-Steelers matchups - was reliable enough to strike again last week because of the familiarity of the parties involved. And although it's been a minute, Titans coach Mike Vrabel has done well against Lamar Jackson, even in the quarterback's prime. Vrabel's teams have compelled Jackson to try to do too much, and he's turned the ball over five times compared to just one passing touchdown. Even if the Titans aren't operating a jet-lag prevention plan, we'll still see if their good run defense can make Jackson force the issue.

Colts (+175) over Jaguars

Speaking of the Jaguars, they were the beneficiaries of significant biorhythmic advantage in their upset - but coming home after two weeks in England to face a team they already struggled against once isn't ideal.

Don't worry about Gardner Minshew. He's been more than adequate when subbing for Anthony Richardson midgame, and the Colts can take advantage of a Jacksonville pass defense that's allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt.

Jacksonville's record as a home favorite hasn't improved since we last cited it - right before the Jags lost to the Texans as bigger favorites than this. More action for Jonathan Taylor and a Colts defense that's getting healthier bode well for the upset chances.

Commanders (+120) over Falcons

Getting embarrassed at home in prime time should have the Commanders' attention. Meanwhile, the Falcons needed an out-of-body experience from Desmond Ridder to barely beat Houston. Atlanta should have been able to dominate the trenches, but the Falcons couldn't turn that into a convincing win.

Don't expect Atlanta to pull off the kind of big passing plays that Justin Fields connected with D.J. Moore on. Instead, Washington's defensive line will give the Falcons more trouble than they got from the Texans. Yet another Falcons home game will come down to the wire, and we'll be on the side paying out at plus money.

Patriots (+145) over Raiders

Never again!

I said it too last week when the Patriots flipped from underdogs to favorites, only to get blown out by the Saints.

However, what we should say in that instance is "Never again at this rating." New England was being considered a purely average team with a 50/100 market rating. That was obviously wrong.

I don't know about you, but I'm not upgrading the Raiders off their win over the Packers. Josh McDaniels' decision-making still seems haphazard, he's going against his mentor with a quarterback Bill Belichick knows well, and the Raiders can't run the ball any better than the Patriots.

A point spread of a full field goal implies a massive downgrade to the Patriots, and maybe they are among the worst teams in the league, but that wasn't the case for the first three games of their season. More likely, we're getting a price on a game that should still be a pick'em.

Cardinals (+255) over Rams

With a defensive DVOA ranked 30th in the NFL, the Cardinals' defense can be scored on - often with ease. However, the Rams are 27th in the same category. That should make for a more entertaining game than you might have expected from this matchup - and it also lends itself to the volatility ideal for producing an upset.

The Rams have been bet up to 7-point favorites and a moneyline this high because, with Cooper Kupp healthy, they're being rated around where they were when he and Matthew Stafford got hurt last year. This might be too much, too soon for a group that hasn't been a significant favorite all season.

How the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.