NBA Defensive Player of the Year betting: Watch out for Embiid

The Defensive Player of the Year award has sparked a hotly contested debate in recent years: should a guard or big win it?

Austin Rivers made a solid point when advocating for more guards to claim the honor.

"On a nightly basis, the bulk of the scoring for every team throughout the league is done by guards, wings," the guard said. "So, why wouldn't the Defensive Player of the Year continually go to the guys who have to guard these guys."

It follows logical reason that the more challenging defensive matchups are usually assigned to guards. But voters aren't buying it. Marcus Smart, who won in 2022, was the first guard to win since Gary Payton in 1996. Last season, it went back to a big when Jaren Jackson Jr. won.

A center or a forward is the anchor of the defense. They are the eyes and ears, often acting as a conductor as the final defensive layer. It's also easier for voters to quantify their impact with stats like blocked shots.

Defensive highlights don't include great closeouts or a player keeping their man in front of them. The perception of who's truly a great defender isn't always obvious to the average fan. Players often get exposed in the playoffs, like Rudy Gobert.

These awards are about narratives. Whoever's standing under the basket and intimidating offensive players as a rim-protector will earn the crown as the best defensive player.

That's reflected in the oddsboard. All of the top candidates are centers or forwards.

Defensive Player of the Year odds

Brook Lopez was the runner-up last season thanks largely to coach Mike Budenholzer's defensive scheme. Lopez sat deep in drop coverage on virtually every pick-and-roll. He found ways to constantly maneuver around the rim on defense without violating the three-second rule.

That scheme led to Lopez going from a perceived defensive liability early in his career to one of the league's best rim-protectors. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game last season, tied for the second most in the NBA.

But the Bucks have a new coach, which means a new scheme. Lopez won't become a switching machine on the perimeter, but he likely won't have as many opportunities to alter shots near the rim.

Evan Mobley was a finalist last year, Giannis Antetokounmpo won in 2020, Anthony Davis is constantly in the conversation, and Gobert's a three-time winner.

Jackson is the favorite as the defending honoree, and consecutive winners are common for this award. Dwight Howard won three straight in the early 2010s, Kawhi Leonard won in back-to-back years in the middle of the decade, and Gobert won in 2018 and 2019.

Jackson led the league in blocks with three per game. Anyone can find countless highlights showcasing his defensive prowess.

But there's one guy down the oddsboard who's been vastly underrated as a defensive presence. That's Sixers center Joel Embiid.

Embiid's ability to guard on the perimeter in spots, recover at great lengths, and serve as a dominant rim-protector is unfathomable. He doesn't earn enough attention for his defensive versatility. It's rare the MVP and scoring leader is also one of the league's best defenders.

The 7-foot center had the fourth-best defensive RAPTOR rating, which evaluates a player's impact on winning on each end, in the NBA last season.

He's oftentimes most dangerous as a trailing defender in transition. An attacking offensive player thinks he has a step on Embiid, but the MVP's strides are so long that he can easily recover and rise up for the block.

Look at these two plays where he seems like he's trailing the play and jogging down the court before accelerating at the last minute and handing Derrick White and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander a serving of stuffing.

Embiid has made three NBA All-Defensive second teams, but none since 2021. However, Antetokounmpo didn't win Defensive Player of the Year until after he won his first MVP. Embiid is on a similar path.

This is the season he earns the necessary respect defensively, and it's going to be because of Nick Nurse. Nurse has made his defensive strategy clear. He said he's going to "expect a lot more rim protection from (Embiid)." Nurse insinuated Philadelphia will force guards to the middle and dare them to shoot with Embiid in the vicinity.

"He's going to take more swings at blocked shots," Nurse said.

Embiid averaged just 1.7 blocks last season, seventh best in the league. With a more aggressive approach, his blocks should skyrocket. It could also lead to more fouls, but foul trouble has never been a serious issue for Embiid. He averages just 3.1 fouls per game for his career, a relatively low number for a center.

Many of Embiid's blocks occur when he slides over as the help defender, like this one on Antetokounmpo and his 7-foot-3 wingspan:

The Sixers' opponent's effective field-goal percentage increases when Embiid is off the floor - albeit slightly - which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.

Just look how he contains guards when he's forced to switch to the perimeter. Jrue Holiday is seven inches shorter but can't create any space for seven seconds:

With a new system encouraging him to be more aggressive, Embiid will earn his defensive respect and capture the award one year removed from being named MVP.

Pick: Joel Embiid to win DPOY +1800 (bet $10 to win $180)

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage