NBA betting how-to: Understanding point spreads to find value

We've sifted through division previews and outlined various future markets to bet on. You can find all of our preview content in our NBA betting hub.

With the NBA season quickly approaching, let's break down how to bet on the actual games and make some money this season. First, it's important to understand why spreads are a certain way and how they're created.

NBA oddsmakers have ratings for every team. They apply those numbers to a formula and adjust for home-court advantage - along with a few other factors - to create opening lines.

Then, they react to how sharp bettors view the game and move the line accordingly. If the sharp market is betting significantly on one side early, oddsmakers adjust the point spread until the one-sided betting ceases.

Bettors can continue to weigh in until tip-off arrives, but oddsmakers have likely found a line they are set on by then, which becomes the closing line.

Finding an edge/NBA Team ratings

So, how do bettors get an edge on the market? By betting early and beating the closing line. If you bet on the Celtics while they're favored by 1.5 points and the line then moves to Celtics -4, you've found value. You just need Boston to win by two or more points, while anyone who bets closer to the tip needs the team to win by more than four to cash their ticket.

Let's explore how we jump on those numbers and beat the market before the line moves. The most simple way is to have an idea of what a point spread should be before it gets bet to that number.

We figure that out with our constantly updated market ratings that rely on past information from the betting market and a formula used to predict spreads.

For our market ratings, we use a scale of 100 to rate every team based on regular-season win totals and how the market weighed in on those win totals to determine our rating.

Market Ratings

Point spread valuation/calculation

We first need to establish what the largest point spread could be in an NBA game. The biggest we've seen since 2003 is 22.5. But if the best team in NBA history faces the worst team, could a point spread become as large as 27? Probably. Factoring in homecourt and potentially other factors, we'll say the largest possible point spread is 33.

Now, we'll take a team's rating out of 100 and multiply that percentage by 33 to obtain a spread value.

For example, the Celtics' estimated rating of 76/100 would give them a spread value of 25.08 (.76*33). The Knicks - Boston's opening-night opponent - have a rating of 61/100, which gives them a spread value of 20.13. That's a 4.97 difference between the Celtics' spread value and the Knicks'. You also have to consider home-court advantage, which we factor in as a 3-point swing. The game is in New York, which would create a reasonable opening line of Celtics -1.97, according to our system.

The Celtics opened as 2.5-point favorites. As the season goes on and we gain more intel from the betting market based on closing lines for every game, the market ratings will constantly adjust.

If our system says a team should be favored by five based on weeks of data, but it's only favored by two, that's the time to bet before the market reacts - assuming everyone's healthy and there are no unforeseen circumstances.

We'll check back in throughout the season to provide updates on our market ratings. Remember, be informed and bet responsibly.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.