Week 7 round-robin underdog parlay: Back to basic discomfort

We spent a lot of time last week trying to figure out whether the Browns would start Deshaun Watson or PJ Walker. While Walker was presumably going to be thrown to the wolves in the form of the 49ers' defense, we didn't know what the final moneyline odds would be for backing Cleveland, since the Browns were still 5.5-point underdogs as of Thursday and little more than +200 on the moneyline.

Then Watson's status was confirmed and the moneyline closed shy of +400, the type of price that - had it been available during the week - would have been perfect to include here. Our weekly guilty pleasure bet is designed to back underdogs we think are mispriced, risking less than a unit on the result while still having a chance to profit off the remaining four teams.

Taking a shot with the Browns would have cost us 0.7 units with a loss, but a win suddenly makes two, three or four other games even more interesting. Though we didn't know the eventual peak price at publish time last week, it's just another reminder that this is the time to get weird.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - which we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Patriots (+320) over Bills

This is solely about price relative to the Bills' rating in the betting market - since it obviously doesn't have anything to do with the Patriots' play over the last three weeks.

While the Patriots only have themselves to blame for their rating plummeting from an average NFL team to around 40/100, it's not Buffalo's fault that its rating needs to be dropped from a Super Bowl contender to merely a playoff team.

Since crushing the Dolphins, the Bills have sent Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones to the IR - arguably their most important players at all three defensive levels. As bad as things have been for the Patriots' offense, if the Giants can create a scenario versus Buffalo that comes down to one play, it's not out of the question for the Patriots.

Losing a spread bet on a safety last week at least suggests that we found the low point for New England in the market. The spread for this game should be no higher than +7, and the moneyline should be around +250.

Bears (+140) over Raiders

It's time for quarterback roulette in Chicago! Jimmy Garoppolo is just out of the hospital, Justin Fields can't grip a ball, and Aidan O'Connell is hoping for another chance to prove he won't get sacked a million times. Moreover, am I supposed to believe Josh McDaniels should be favored on the road and this isn't a 50-50 matchup? I'll take +140 in a game where literally anything can happen.

Steelers (+140) over Rams

SoFi Stadium will be black and yellow this week. Steelers fans will be more vocal than Wiz Khalifa, and the Rams - with a rash of tailback injuries - won't be able to rely on running as they did when they dominated the Cardinals. Matthew Stafford will be forced into a one-dimensional offense, and that's when T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith will start caving in the pocket.

Offensively, this should resemble Pittsburgh's best showing in Las Vegas, as the Rams' defense has a nearly identical profile to the same Raiders unit. Plus, if the Steelers ever tweak their offense, they'd do it out of their bye - and hopefully, they'll place more trust in George Pickens in one-on-one matchups.

Chargers (+200) over Chiefs

Strangely, the Chargers were the more buttoned-up outfit Monday night, but Justin Herbert - usually the highlight of every Bolts game - missed a handful of key throws versus the Cowboys. While very disappointing, it doesn't mean their season's over, and we know the Chargers always play the Chiefs right down to the wire. For their part, the Chiefs used to be more capable of crushing opponents, but now they're a defense-first team that plays closer games, and Patrick Mahomes' aggressive decision-making should catch up to him eventually.

Vikings (+250) over 49ers

The only thing that could change these moneyline odds is Christian McCaffrey (and to a lesser extent Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams) being ruled out for Monday, shortening the price. It's not a bad time to buy the Vikings ahead of any news.

As for Minnesota's path to a win: Maybe it's a product of their opponents, but the Vikings' run defense is in the league's top 10, it scored in two of their last three games, and it only allowed 333 yards to Kansas City. The Vikings were 4-point underdogs at home to the Chiefs but are +7 here because Justin Jefferson isn't available. Expect Kirk Cousins to have a better connection with the remaining targets at home and be up for a potentially high-variance shootout with Brock Purdy.

How the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.