NBA MVP betting: Can Jokic reclaim his throne?

The NBA MVP debate got a little heated last season, to say the least. A supposedly fun conversation became about much more when Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic competed for the honor.

Many voters have openly admitted that on-court performance isn't the only thing under consideration. The narrative plays a role, too.

For example, the award follows cyclical position trends. In the early 2010s, wing scorers Lebron James and Kevin Durant won. Then ball-dominant guards such as Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden earned the honor in the middle of the decade. Over the past few seasons, the award has gone to powerful bigs like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jokic, and Embiid.

The big man rules the NBA in a way it hasn't since the 2000s. That's not changing this season.

Keep in mind that a player must play at least 65 regular-season games to qualify for any award this campaign. Now, let's hope this year's MVP conversation isn't as contentious as last season's.

NBA MVP odds

Oddsmakers have been tempting bettors to wager on Luka Doncic. He was the betting favorite entering the campaign the previous three years. Spoiler alert: He never won. This season, he's the second favorite.

Doncic is a star. He nearly averaged a triple-double with 32.4 points, eight assists, and 8.6 rebounds last season. There's just one problem: His team isn't good enough.

The last 24 MVPs have played on clubs that earned a top-three seed in their conference. The lone exception was Westbrook's historic 2016-17 campaign.

The Mavericks are tied with three teams for the sixth-highest win total in the West. If they shock everyone en route to a top finish in the conference, it'll be Doncic's heroics that drag them there. However, I wouldn't bet on that.

Doncic's turn as an MVP will come, but not this season.

The MVP winner is usually predictable. Nine of the last 12 winners had preseason odds of +800 or shorter. Two notable exceptions were when Steph Curry (+4000) emerged as one of the league's top players during the 2014-15 season and when Jokic (+2000) did the same thing during the 2020-21 campaign.

For the most part, though, it's really not worth taking a long-shot bet in this market. Voters already know who the best players are heading into the campaign, and it's hard to change their minds. It's a matter of which of those players has the best season.

Sure, there can be breakout players every few years, but ascension in the NBA is a marathon, not a sprint. Just ask the last three winners - Embiid, Jokic, and Antetokounmpo.

That is why I'm going with Jokic, the betting favorite.

Many people believe voter fatigue plays a role in the MVP race. Voters don't want to select a back-to-back winner for a third consecutive year.

History proves the theory somewhat true. Larry Bird was the last player to claim the award for three straight years (1984-86) despite there being numerous back-to-back winners, including Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, James, Curry, Antetokounmpo, and Jokic.

There's also voter reinvigoration - or maybe voter regret is the proper term. Embiid deserved to win the regular-season honor last campaign, but there was a legitimate debate before the playoffs about whether Jokic or Embiid was the better player.

Jokic's remarkable championship-winning run squashed that discussion. It's hard to see voters not siding with Jokic in future MVP considerations after he proved himself to be the league's best player. It's also hard to ignore preconceived notions developed from past playoff runs.

But instead of trying to get into the minds of voters to make the case for Jokic, let's discuss his greatness.

The 6-foot-11, 284-pound big man effortlessly dominates every facet of the game in a way no one else is capable of. He's unstoppable on the block, a brilliant passer from every spot on the floor, and a consistent outside shooter.

Jokic usually isn't at the top of the league in scoring - which is rare for an MVP - but his offensive impact as a do-it-all center is unmatched. Everyone marvels at his excellence.

It helps that the Nuggets are a top team in the league, and that Jokic has been durable the last few seasons.

Jokic's regular season will cement him as the league's most dominant force - if he isn't already. Many voters who felt fatigued from his back-to-back wins will have no choice but to reward the big man with his third MVP.

Pick: Nikola Jokic to win MVP +425