Best bets to make, miss NBA playoffs
There's no shortage of ways to bet on teams you expect to have a surprisingly good or bad season. We gave out bets in our division previews and our favorite win totals. You can find all of it in our NBA preview betting hub.
Betting on a club to make or miss the playoffs is another way you can take a stab at predicting a team's future. Here are our favorite bets for this market.
Pelicans to make playoffs (-150)
It's encouraging to see the Pelicans listed with better odds to make the postseason than miss it. Betting on Zion Williamson's health might as well have the same odds as a roulette spin. He's been anything but consistently available since he entered the NBA in 2019.
But if - and it's a massive if - he can stay healthy this season, the Pelicans are a surefire playoff team. The Pelicans were 17-12 with Williamson in the lineup and 25-28 without him last year.
Brandon Ingram had a great final three months of the season after he returned from injury. Williamson, Ingram, and CJ McCollum are a solid core in a competitive West. New Orleans also has a deep roster that can withstand minor injuries to their stars.
It's hard to bet on injury-prone stars, but this team will do some damage if it avoids a major injury.
Heat to miss playoffs (+340)
The Heat should be a top-eight team in the East. But for a squad that was the 8-seed last year, made a miraculous run to the NBA Finals, and got worse this offseason, +340 (bet $10 to win $34) to miss the playoffs is tremendous value.
The Heat are more likely to make the playoffs than miss it with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo - two of the top 25 players in the league. They are -500 to make the playoffs, giving them an implied probability of 83% to play in the postseason.
Anyone following our NBA betting preview content knows I'm bearish on the Heat. They are one of my favorite win-total bets to win under 45.5 games. The Heat won 44 contests last season and were the league's fourth-worst 3-point shooting team.
They were forced to play in the play-in and had a win-or-go-home game against the Bulls, which kick-started their improbable run.
That run, however, was a statistical anomaly over a two-month span when Miami turned into incredible outside shooters. It's important to remember the Heat from the regular season and not the playoffs when evaluating their potential.
Gabe Vincent and Max Strus - two instrumental pieces in the playoffs - departed in free agency. The Heat are relying on an aging Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love to be productive over an entire campaign, which they simply aren't capable of anymore.
The Heat have the assets to make an in-season trade for a star - someone like James Harden. But the current roster will struggle to make the playoffs.
Timberwolves to make playoffs (-140)
The Timberwolves made a colossal mistake trading for Rudy Gobert in exchange for a plethora of valuable assets. Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns clearly can't be on the floor at the same time in the playoffs. Even a basketball novice could've seen that coming.
Just because this team isn't good enough to advance in the playoffs doesn't mean it can't at least get in. Anthony Edwards is one of the NBA's premier guards, and after spending a summer with Team USA, there's no reason he can't contend for an All-NBA selection.
Eventually, the Timberwolves will have to decide if they want to build around Edwards or Towns. For now, though, the two talents will have to co-exist.
Towns only played 29 games last season but returned from injury in March. The Timberwolves still won 42 contests despite him missing the bulk of the campaign. With a deep rotation including Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Kyle Anderson, the T-Wolves shouldn't have a problem securing a playoff spot.
Pacers to make playoffs (+138)
My expectations for the Pacers are higher than most. If this bet was even money, I'd take it. Plus money is even better.
The Pacers have the right mixture of young and proven talent to be the surprise team of the East. Tyrese Haliburton's emergence as an All-Star was a pleasant development, and if he continues to grow - as a scorer and playmaker - so will the Pacers. Buddy Hield is one of the NBA's best 3-point shooters. Bennedict Mathurin's development - or, potentially, lack thereof - could have a big say on how far this team can go.
The additions of Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin create a balanced roster. Indiana also has Rick Carlisle - one of the best coaches in the league - to figure out how to maximize this roster.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage