Week 9 survivor pick: Backing the Dawg Pound or Who Dat Nation?
Time is the world's most valuable asset.
Using the league's top teams has bought us time - the season's first two months - even if it hasn't given us an advantage over the remaining fields in our survivor pools.
Now, it's time to pay the piper. We must pick from potential non-playoff teams to win games they're expected to, even if they're merely an average lot. Luckily, those most likely to win this week are teams in the meaty part of the NFL's bell curve. Most of the ones we've used are facing other top-tier squads.
Every week until we get knocked out, we've mapped two paths to make it to the end of the season undefeated. As long as one of our entries still stands, we'll use the moneylines for our picks to show the odds of making it the distance traveled along the path. Once we're out, though, we're out.
We could provide a series of theoretical rules to follow - like never taking a road team - but the moneyline reflects a club's likelihood of winning each game. We can easily translate that into an implied win probability, listed in descending order in the chart below.
Week 9 moneylines
| TEAM | MONEYLINE | IMPLIED PROB (%). |
|---|---|---|
| Browns | -380 | 79.2 |
| Saints | -380 | 79.2 |
| Ravens | -240 | 70.6 |
| Falcons | -210 | 67.7 |
| Patriots | -175 | 63.6 |
| Packers | -165 | 62.3 |
| Colts | -155 | 60.8 |
| Eagles | -155 | 60.8 |
| Bengals | -155 | 60.8 |
| Chargers | -155 | 60.8 |
| Steelers | -150 | 60.0 |
| Raiders | -145 | 59.2 |
| Texans | -145 | 59.2 |
| Chiefs | -140 | 58.3 |
| Dolphins | +120 | 45.5 |
| Buccaneers | +125 | 44.4 |
| Giants | +125 | 44.4 |
| Titans | +130 | 43.5 |
| Jets | +135 | 42.6 |
| Bills | +135 | 42.6 |
| Cowboys | +135 | 42.6 |
| Panthers | +135 | 42.6 |
| Rams | +140 | 41.7 |
| Commanders | +150 | 40.0 |
| Vikings | +175 | 36.4 |
| Seahawks | +200 | 33.3 |
| Bears | +300 | 25.0 |
| Cardinals | +300 | 25.0 |
Survivor Path A
Knocked out in Week 3. Thanks, Ravens. At least they didn't crush our hopes the second time around last week.
Survivor Path B
| WEEK | TEAM USED | IMPLIED PROB. |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcons | 64.9% |
| 2 | Cowboys | 80.0% |
| 3 | Chiefs | 88.9% |
| 4 | 49ers | 90.9% |
| 5 | Lions | 81.0% |
| 6 | Bills | 90.9% |
| 7 | Seahawks | 79.2% |
| 8 | Ravens | 80.0% |
| SURVIVOR PROBABILITY | 19.6% |
Other than the already-used Ravens, the seven teams with the highest win probability this week are all considered league-average in the betting market.
We were happy to get the Falcons off our list early with a Week 1 win over the Panthers, but they've come back as a surprisingly good option against the Vikings this week. Kirk Cousins' Achilles injury leaves a gaping hole for Minnesota, which is already without Justin Jefferson.
This week's decision comes down to the Saints and Browns - two teams you can't be thrilled with trusting. Since we need to plan for 18 weeks, we must use both teams eventually.
New Orleans has two teams on its home schedule that are rated similarly to the Bears: the Panthers in Week 14 and the Giants in Week 15. Cleveland also has a good matchup in Week 15 when, coincidentally, it faces the Bears.
We can take solace in an uncomfortable decision at least having simple terms:
| OPTION 1 | OPTION 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Week 9 | CLE (vs. AZ) | NO (vs. CHI) |
| Week 15 | NO (vs. CAR) | CLE (vs. CHI) |
While both options have the same win probability this week, in Week 15, the Saints should be at least -7 at home to the Panthers, while the Browns will be favorites by just under a touchdown against the Bears.
Survivor is filled with forks in the road. Even if everyone makes it past this week, it'd add another division for the entries. We'll thus opt for a slight advantage in win probability and the late-season flexibility provided by taking the Browns against the Cardinals.
Pick: Browns
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.