Week 9 round-robin underdog parlay: Moving pieces create moneyline value

The NFL trade deadline came and went with some interesting - if not earth-shattering - moves.

Chase Young was the biggest name to be dealt and he was sent to the best buyer. If I had more faith in Sam Howell on the road, the Commanders' dealings might have created some value in betting on their moneyline in New England.

But another deal sets up a potential underdog surprise and, elsewhere, we hope that Jamal Adams' helmet doesn't get in the way of another winner this week... or maybe we do?

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - which we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Vikings (+190) over Falcons

I'm aware that Kirk Cousins is done for the year. His absence will be a problem for the rest of the season. But it was an overreaction to flip favorites from my projected line of the Vikings as a short favorite to a moneyline nearing +200. As we saw last week, the Falcons have a situation at quarterback where two options are equally capable of turning the ball over at any moment.

In calling the Vikings' upset of the 49ers two weeks ago, we referenced the former's defensive turnaround under Brian Flores. They're top-10 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), and only two teams have allowed fewer yards per rush. The Falcons, meanwhile, have scored 16 points or fewer in half of their games this season. Sticking to a fundamental offense with either Joshua Dobbs or Jaren Hall and winning the turnover battle against Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke seems like a reasonable recipe to manufacture 17-20 points and possibly pull out a win.

Bears (+300) over Saints

"Oh good, the Bears again." - You, sarcastically, probably.

I've never seen the Chargers play a cleaner game, but it helped that a phantom whistle ruled Darnell Mooney down when he would have put Chicago at least in scoring range to take a lead. That might have provided a game script to keep them closer on Sunday. At the very least, having been beaten repeatedly on checkdowns to a tailback, the Bears' defense should be ready for Derek Carr-to-Alvin Kamara.

Will the Saints get the same breaks and play as flawlessly off of a win as the Chargers did when they were desperate to keep their season alive? It seems unlikely. New Orleans' run defense has fallen off from a good start, allowing 6.8 yards per carry to the Colts last week. Chicago should be able to use play-action to make life easier for Tyson Bagent and, if Justin Fields can go, his presence adds the type of high-end variable you want in a big underdog.

Seahawks (+210) over Ravens

It's been four weeks, spanning eight time zones, since the Ravens inexplicably lost a game against an inferior team - so they're due for a stinker. However, on their best day, the Seahawks might not be that inferior.

The Seahawks successfully revamped their defensive line in the offseason. They allowed 4.9 yards per carry in 2022 but brought that number down to 3.6 this year, and they upgraded that group even further this week by adding Leonard Williams from the Giants. The Ravens' passing game has improved this season, but the threat of the run needs to be prominent for it to be successful. Getting key components of their secondary in Tariq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon and Jamal Adams on the field together has made the Seahawks difficult to throw against lately.

Cowboys (+140) over Eagles

It's time for the Cowboys to run the ball well. They were able to do it in Philadelphia last year at 5.2 yards per carry but couldn't beat the Eagles on the road with Cooper Rush at the helm. When Dak Prescott returned for the rematch, it was a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.

As much as Philadelphia's defensive personnel is still top-notch, their metrics are middle of the pack, sitting 18th in DVOA. Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank third in the same category. Philadelphia is the better team offensively, but there's concern that a key offensive weapon in the form of Jalen Hurts' legs is compromised, as indicated by a season-low in carries and yards last week.

Jets (+150) over Chargers

On Monday night, we get a matchup between a Chargers team that somehow loses games in inventive fashion and a Jets team that manages to win games in unexpected ways. Oh, and the winners are a notable underdog.

Let's bet against Los Angeles on the road. "Throw it to Austin Ekeler" was the team's game plan last week en route to a win perceived worthy of a Chargers rating upgrade. But the team's defense still ranks 27th-rated in DVOA and may make Zach Wilson look functional and struggle to contain Breece Hall.

How the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.