NFL Week 9 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams
What do we make of the Texans' 39-37 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday? The line - Houston -2.5 - barely moved all week before the result came down to the Texans (correctly) kneeling the conversion after their game-winning score.
Beyond C.J. Stroud seemingly sealing Offensive Rookie of the Year with his 470-yard performance, the thing we'll remember is how the Texans dealt with being without a kicker after Ka'imi Fairbairn's first-half injury. It's easy to argue that Houston didn't cover because the team didn't have a kicker, but removing the risk of a Tampa Bay block and return for two points to tie would be reason enough to kneel anyway.
The Texans also had to go for three other two-point conversions earlier in the game without Fairbairn. They made just one, scoring two out of an expected three total points.
However, those blaming the missing kicker for not covering aren't factoring in the Texans' touchdown after Stroud found Dalton Schultz on fourth-and-8 - a situation that would normally see Houston kick a field goal.
The reality is the Texans blew the cover when they gave up a 10-play, 61-yard touchdown drive to Baker Mayfield that gave the Bucs a four-point lead. It's a worthwhile reminder that Houston almost lost a week after being beaten in Carolina.
How ratings work
Every week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.
The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where, within its range, a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.
Market ratings and our range
| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 72 | 60-80 |
| 49ers | 71 | 60-80 |
| Chiefs | 70 | 60-80 |
| Cowboys | 69 | 60-80 |
| Dolphins | 69 | 55-75 |
| Ravens | 69 | 55-75 |
| Bills | 65 | 55-75 |
| Bengals | 64 | 40-75 |
| Lions | 61 | 50-70 |
| Chargers | 58 | 50-70 |
| Jaguars | 57 | 45-65 |
| Browns | 57 | 40-60 |
| Saints | 53 | 40-60 |
| Seahawks | 52 | 40-60 |
| Falcons | 44 | 35-55 |
| Steelers | 44 | 40-60 |
| Broncos | 43 | 35-55 |
| Texans | 42 | 25-45 |
| Patriots | 41 | 35-55 |
| Jets | 40 | 30-50 |
| Packers | 40 | 35-55 |
| Titans | 40 | 35-55 |
| Commanders | 38 | 35-55 |
| Colts | 38 | 25-45 |
| Buccaneers | 38 | 30-50 |
| Vikings | 37 | 35-55 |
| Giants | 36 | 25-45 |
| Rams | 32 | 30-55 |
| Raiders | 31 | 30-50 |
| Panthers | 26 | 25-45 |
| Bears | 25 | 20-40 |
| Cardinals | 15 | 20-40 |
Money came in steadily throughout the week on Miami, right up until the kick-off in Germany, making the Dolphins and Chiefs a virtual pick'em. We rarely get to see two similarly rated teams on a literal neutral site, so it was surprising that those teams would be considered equal.
Remember how we thought it was an overreaction that the Titans were dropped as low as they were before Will Levis' debut against the Falcons? It took that one game before Tennessee was put right back to where the team usually traffics - in the 40s.
The Saints beat the Colts, and their rating went up. The Bears lost handily to the Chargers, and their rating went down. It was pretty standard stuff, but it created a line that asked if New Orleans could cover a two-score spread. The team's answer: "Nah."
In this week's quarterback injury roundup, the Rams' rating got knocked down to 32/100 with Matthew Stafford out. This is in keeping with where they finished last season without Stafford. We haven't seen the Vikings without Kirk Cousins for a while, but Kevin O'Connell might be so good at coordinating offenses that Minnesota can get by with everyone buying in to make it work.
The Ravens' rating is at its highest point in years, but when that happens and a team still covers a spread, that's impressive.
The Bengals keep moving up. If you're wondering where their ceiling should be, they finished last season at 66/100 before losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
We won't know until at least next week whether the Browns are overrated with Deshaun Watson back in the lineup because the Cardinals with Clayton Tune were so bad they burst through the floor of their rating range. With Kyler Murray expected back, we'll investigate the change in Arizona's rating later this week.
It turns out the Raiders were the buy-low spot of the week, but it helped that Daniel Jones went out with a torn ACL early. Now we'll see the Giants' rating crater below the Cardinals' at the bottom of the NFL.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.