NFL Week 18 betting guide (Part 1): The 'fake' games

Week 18 is a different animal. Some teams have something to play for, while others do not. Teams in the latter situation give us glorified exhibition games resembling the preseason. We'll get to the real games, but it's time to look at a handful of fake competitions in the season's final week.

We'll include for each game an "If all things were equal (IATWE)" line - essentially a projected point spread if the game was played amidst traditional circumstances, and divide each game into either a lean, bet or best bet.

Browns @ Bengals (-7, 37.5)

If All Things Were Equal (IATWE) line: Browns -1

The Browns are locked into the 5-seed in the AFC playoffs, and locking up a playoff spot earned them a virtual bye this week. It was possible to foresee that Joe Flacco wouldn't play, making Bengals -4 a good bet, but who predicted Jeff Driskel as the starter? Myles Garrett and a handful of others will also sit, so we may see the line go even higher.

As a general rule for "fake games," the home team gets the first look. All NFL players are playing for their careers while the franchise aims to send the fans home happy.

Like the preseason, this is an opportunity for players down the depth chart. For Cincinnati, assuming its starters don't play in full, players like Jake Browning, Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas, and Tanner Hudson will get to complete a season in which they made strides.

Lean: Bengals (-7)

Vikings @ Lions (-3.5, 45.5)

IATWE line: Lions -7

Some might argue this is a real game. However, the Vikings need a miracle to make the playoffs, and it would take almost as much for the Lions to improve their seeding.

There are two options for Detroit:

1. Start and play everyone, creating value for the Lions.
2. Swap Jared Goff for Teddy Bridgewater and sit a handful of other starters.

The second option means that Bridgewater gets the final start of his career. Dan Campbell's group, playing at home, strikes me as the type that would rally around this occasion.

The Lions have had to deal with injuries to their offensive line all season, and a second string of Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Craig Reynolds has had its moments.

Nick Mullens has thrown interceptions on 5.8% of his pass attempts this season, so we can fade his irresponsible ball security on the road in an environment that will be pumped to celebrate a big Detroit season.

Best bet: Lions (-3.5)

Jets @ Patriots (-2, 30.5)

IATWE line: Patriots -2.5

This is a narrative play since the line is about right, and little from either side makes us desperate to bet them. It appears that this is Bill Belichick's last game with the Patriots, and he's not interested in losing a farewell against his rivals.

Bailey Zappe struggled last week in Buffalo, but he's back home against a Jets defense that can't claim to be the better unit in this game after giving up more than 28 points to the Browns, Commanders, and Dolphins (without Tyreek Hill). Zappe's got a higher ceiling than Trevor Siemian.

Best bet: Patriots (-2)

Broncos @ Raiders (-3, 38.5)

IATWE line: Raiders -0.5

The Raiders could win this game by more than three points, but I'm not sure why they're being asked to do so. Las Vegas managed a backdoor cover in Indianapolis (despite allowing 6.6 yards per play), but if its rating is lifted by beating a lifeless Chargers team and then stunning the Chiefs with just 3.9 yards per play for three straight covers, I'm not sold.

The Broncos got downgraded from slightly below average to the level of the Raiders when Russell Wilson was benched, but Denver won and covered, so there's no reason to believe the team isn't in line with Vegas. With Denver pushing on the key number of +3, the Broncos are worth a bet in a toss-up.

Bet: Broncos (+3)

Chiefs @ Chargers (-3.5, 35.5)

IATWE line: Chiefs -10.5

The 14-point adjustment in the point spread with Blaine Gabbert starting for Patrick Mahomes (and Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Chris Jones, L'Jarius Sneed, and other key Chiefs not playing) would be more significant if we were going from Chargers -1 to -15. Since the game starts 0-0 and the goal is to win, that hypothetical asks L.A. to go above and beyond the game's starting point. In this case, the Chargers have to go from 0-0 to a four-point lead.

The Chiefs lack the depth to scare any opponent. If they had better receivers, they would have used them by now. Gabbert isn't stepping into an offense that's clicking in the way Chad Henne got it to in years past. It's Easton Stick's fourth game, and the Chargers are another example of individuals playing for their role in the league next year, while K.C. is using this to replace the bye the team usually gets this time of year during Wild Card Weekend.

Lean: Chargers (-3.5)

Rams @ 49ers (-4, 40.5)

IATWE line: 49ers -10.5

The discount is on the 49ers because Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey won't play, and the same should be said for other San Francisco stars. However, we've already seen a sign that the Rams will treat the game similarly, starting Carson Wentz and resting Matthew Stafford.

This amounts to where you think a bigger downgrade lies.

Would you rather bet on Sam Darnold operating Kyle Shanahan's offense with young backups or the Rams without the connection that Stafford has with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua?

Nacua is one of a handful of Rams draftees that have made an impact and earned some rest. The 49ers' young players - Jordan Mason, Ronnie Bell, etc. - haven't had to play much and should take advantage of this chance.

Give me the infrastructure of the Niners in a home game over Sean McVay - who regularly tanks the preseason - at anything under a touchdown.

Best bet: 49ers (-4)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.